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首页> 外文期刊>Weather and forecasting >Design and Implementation of a GSI-Based Convection-Allowing Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Forecast System for the PECAN Field Experiment. Part II: Overview and Evaluation of a Real-Time System
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Design and Implementation of a GSI-Based Convection-Allowing Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation and Forecast System for the PECAN Field Experiment. Part II: Overview and Evaluation of a Real-Time System

机译：基于GSI的对流允许基于GECAN现场实验的基于GSI的对流的数据同化和预测系统的设计与实现。 第二部分：实时系统的概述和评估

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Multiscale ensemble-based data assimilation and forecasts were performed in real time during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field experiment. A 20-member ensemble of forecasts at 4-km grid spacing was initialized daily at both 1300 and 1900 UTC, together with a deterministic forecast at 1-km grid spacing initialized at 1300 UTC. The configuration of the GSI-based data assimilation and forecast system was guided by results presented in Part I of this two-part study. The present paper describes the implementation of the real-time system and the extensive forecast products that were generated to support the unique interests of PECAN researchers. Subjective and objective verification of the real-time forecasts from 1 June through 15 July 2015 is conducted, with an emphasis on nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), nocturnal convective initiation (CI), nocturnal low-level jets (LLJs), and bores on the nocturnal stable layer. Verification of nocturnal precipitation during overnight hours, a proxy for MCSs, shows both greater skill and spread for the 1300 UTC forecasts than the 1900 UTC forecasts. Verification against observed soundings reveals that the forecast LLJs systematically peak, veer, and dissipate several hours before the observations. Comparisons with bores that passed over an Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer reveal an ability to predict borelike features that is greatly improved at 1-km, compared with 4-km, grid spacing. Objective verification of forecast CI timing reveals strong sensitivity to the PBL scheme but an overall unbiased ensemble.
机译：基于MultiScale集合的数据同化和预测是在夜间（PECAN）现场实验中的平原升高的对流期间实时进行的。在1300和1900 UTC中每天在1300和1900 UTC中初始化4公里网格间距的预测的20个成员集合，以及在1300 UTC的1公里网格间距的确定性预测中初始化。基于GSI的数据同化和预测系统的配置是通过在本身研究的第I部分中提出的结果引导的。本文介绍了实时系统的实施和生成的广泛预测产品，以支持Pecan研究人员的独特利益。对2015年7月15日至6月15日至6月15日的实时预测的主观和客观验证，重点是夜间Messcale对流系统（MCS），夜行经理发起（CI），夜间低级喷射器（LLJ）和孔在夜间稳定层上。在过夜时间核查夜间降水，用于MCS的代理，表明了比1900 UTC预测的1300 UTC预测的技能和扩散。对观察到的探测的验证揭示预测LLJS系统地峰值，转向和消散在观察前几个小时。与大气发射的光线干涉仪通过的孔的比较揭示了预测硼丝状特征的能力，其与4公里相比，与4公里，栅格间距相比。预测CI时机的客观验证揭示了对PBL方案的强烈敏感性，而是整体无偏的集合。

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