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LAMP Upgraded Convection and Total Lightning Probability and 'Potential' Guidance for the Conterminous United States

机译:灯升级对流和总闪电概率和“潜在”指导对孔雀体美国的指导

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摘要

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) convection and lightning probability and "potential" guidance forecasts for the conterminous United States, developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL), have been produced operationally and made available to aviation and other users through the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since April 2014. In response to user requests for improved skill and resolution of these forecasts, MDL has recently made extensive upgrades, and a switch to the new LAMP guidance was made in January 2018. Upgrades include improved spatial and temporal resolution of the predictands, which were enabled by first time LAMP use of finescale radar reflectivity products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, total lightning observations from a ground-based lightning sensing system, and finescale model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. This article describes how these new data inputs are applied in the LAMP model to obtain improved skill and sharpness of the convection and total lightning probability forecasts. Strengths and limitations in LAMP performance are shown through verification statistics and example verification maps for a selected intense convective storm case.
机译:由气象开发实验室(MDL)开发的孔径美国的局部航空MOS计划(灯)对流和闪电概率和“潜在”指导预测,通过国家数字化指导,通过国家数字化制作,并可以为航空和其他用户提供数据库(NDGD)自2014年4月起。根据用户对这些预测的提高技能和解决方案的要求,MDL最近已经进行了广泛的升级,并在2018年1月制定了对新灯具指导的切换。升级包括改进的空间和时间分辨率通过首次采用来自多雷达多传感器(MRMS)系统的FineScale雷达反射率产品,从地面闪电传感系统的总闪电观测和高分辨率输出的全闪电观测快速刷新(HRRR)模型。本文介绍了如何在灯泡模型中应用这些新数据输入,以获得对流的提高和敏锐度和总闪电概率预测。通过验证统计信息显示灯具性能的优点和限制,并为选定的激烈对流风暴案例进行示例验证映射。

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