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首页> 外文期刊>Zeitschrift fur Arznei- und Gewurzpflanzen >Response of maize yield under changing climate and production conditions in Vietnam
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Response of maize yield under changing climate and production conditions in Vietnam

机译：越南气候和生产条件下的玉米产量响应

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摘要

This study concerns rainfed maize (Zea mays. L) grown in two different (winter and spring) growing seasons under current and future climate conditions in north-east of Vietnam. The yield response of rainfed maize was investigated by applying the DSSAT CERES-Maize crop model and two climate scenarios according to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results show that maize responds with a wide range of yield-levels due to the different climatic and production conditions. On average, under RCP 8.5 climate scenario, annual maize yield (including both winter and spring maize yields) increases by 1.1% while under RCP 4.5 the increase is 3.6%. The annual balanced maize yield increase under both RCPs is based, however, on significant changes in the simulated winter and spring maize yields, respectively. Winter maize yield was simulated to rise up to 33.3% and 31.9% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In contrast, simulated spring maize yield decreases under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 30.3% and 33.9%, respectively. From those findings, it can be concluded that rainfed maize yields under future changing climatic conditions maybe positively affected in winter growing season while it will be reduced in the spring growing season, mainly due to increasing drought stress. Therefore, irrigation will be crucial key for spring maize production in the future to mitigate the effects of changing climate on crop water availability.
机译：本研究涉及在越南东北部的当前和未来的气候条件下的两种不同（冬季和春季）生长季节的雨水（Zea Mays。l）。根据代表性浓度途径（RCP），RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5，将DSSAT CERES-MAIZE作物模型和两个气候情景应用于雨水玉米的产量响应。结果表明，由于气候和生产条件不同，玉米因各种产量水平而响应。平均而言，根据RCP 8.5气候情景，年度玉米产量（包括冬季和春季玉米产量）在RCP 4.5下增加1.1％，增幅为3.6％。然而，在rcps下的年度平衡玉米产量增加，分别基于模拟冬季和春季玉米产量的显着变化。冬季玉米产量分别在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下升高高达33.3％和31.9％。相比之下，模拟春季玉米产量分别在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5下减少30.3％和33.9％。从那些调查结果中，可以得出结论，在未来的变化气候条件下雨量玉米产量可能会在冬季生长季节受到积极影响，而在春季生长季节将减少，主要是由于越来越多的干旱胁迫。因此，灌溉将成为春玉米生产的关键，以减轻气候变化对作物水资源可用性的影响。

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