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The Science of Impact and the Impact of Agricultural Science

机译：影响与农业科学影响的科学

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Research impact and its measurement are of increasing importance. This is particularly significant for agricultural science, which is expected to produce solutions to future challenges that will arise from population growth, climate change and ecosystem degradation. Much econometric effort has been devoted to analysis of investment in agricultural research and its effects on farm productivity. This analysis, reviewed here, has produced a consensus suggesting that returns are high, although they are achieved only after long lags. However, policy-makers perceive the occurrence of impacts as too few, and poorly targeted with respect to their needs. An attribution gap between the outcomes of agricultural research and how they reach farmers has motivated evaluation of the process of transmission and translation of agricultural research outputs into ultimate impacts. This gap can be narrowed by Participatory Impact Pathway Analysis, implemented mostly so far in low income countries. However, it is a costly and cognitively complex approach. Content analysis of the UK's 2014 REF Impact Case Studies uncovers the mind set of researchers and their managers regarding the description of impact and how it is supposed to occur. This reveals a nascent conservatism that focuses on research that can be shown to have impact, rather than research impact itself. From the overall discussion it can be concluded that the impact evaluation of agricultural science raises more profound issues than simply efficiency or transparency. Confirmation bias threatens impact evaluation, principally by distracting from other important stories about how and why the ultimate effects occur, but also by transforming the nature of the process itself. Methodological pluralism, with greater integration and triangulation between different evaluation approaches, is a promising means of resolving these problems.
机译：研究影响及其测量值得越来越重要。这对于农业科学特别重要，预计将为未来的挑战产生解决方案，这些挑战将来自人口增长，气候变化和生态系统退化。致力于对农业研究投资及其对农业生产力影响的努力进行了众多努力。在此处审查此分析已产生共识，表明回报很高，尽管它们仅在长期滞后后实现。然而，政策制定者认为影响的影响太少，而且对其需求的目标不当。农业研究结果与他们如何到达农民之间的归因差距有动力评估农业研究产出的传播过程和翻译成终极影响。这种差距可以通过参与性影响途径分析来缩小，主要在低收入国家迄今为止实施。然而，这是一种昂贵和认知的方法。英国2014年裁判影响案例研究的内容分析揭示了研究人员及其管理人员，了解影响的描述以及应该如何发生的情况。这揭示了一个新的保守主义，专注于可以显示出影响的研究，而不是研究影响本身。从整体讨论来看，可以得出结论，农业科学的影响评价比简单的效率或透明度提高了更深刻的问题。确认偏见威胁影响评估，主要通过对如何以及为什么如何以及为何进行最终效应发生的其他重要故事，而且还通过转变过程本身的性质。方法论多元化，不同评估方法之间的一体化和三角测量，是解决这些问题的有希望的方法。

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