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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Applied Psychology >Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments
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Causal attribution and hindsight bias for economic developments

机译：经济发展的因果归因和后视偏见

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摘要

Hindsight bias for economic developments was studied, with particular focus on the moderating effects of attitudes and causal attributions. Participants (N = 263) rated the likelihood of several economic developments 6 months before and 6 months after the euro introduction in 2002. Hindsight bias occurred selectively for attitude-consistent economic developments: Euro supporters showed stronger hindsight bias for positive developments than for negative ones; euro opponents showed the opposite pattern. Causal attribution further moderated the hindsight bias: Participants who perceived a strong connection between the euro introduction and specific economic developments showed higher attitude-consistent hindsight bias than participants who perceived those developments as unrelated to the euro. It is argued that hindsight bias serves to stabilize subjective representations of the economy.
机译：研究了经济发展的后敏感偏见，特别关注态度和因果归因的调节效果。 参与者（N = 263）评为2002年欧元介绍后6个月和6个月之前的几个经济发展的可能性。后者偏见发生了态度 - 一致的经济发展：欧元支持者对积极发展的强大偏见，而不是消极的发展 ; 欧元对手表现出相反的模式。 因果归属进一步调节了后视偏见：在欧元介绍和特定经济发展之间感知强烈联系的参与者表现出更高的态度 - 一致的后视偏见，而不是将那些与欧元无关的发展的参与者。 有人认为，后视偏见用于稳定经济的主观陈述。

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