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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Asian Economics >Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing Evidence from Iran
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Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing Evidence from Iran

机译：来自伊朗的石油生产证据的前瞻性代理和通货膨胀

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摘要

A monetary model of inflation was estimated on the oil-producing country of Iran for the period 1984:1-2016:4. It was found that expectations are formed rationally and that agents are forward-looking and adjust their behavior based on changes in government expenditure. Consequently, it was found that higher fiscal variables result in lower price levels over the long run. A higher oil price leads to a lower price in the country but to a higher money supply and interest rate over the long run. Furthermore, a higher domestic interest rate results in a higher price level, while the reverse is true for a higher foreign interest rate. Another cause of inflation in Iran is the foreign price level. It was found that over the short run a higher growth of the real government expenditure results in a lower inflation rate in the country but a positive change in the foreign interest rate brings in a higher inflation rate. (c) 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
机译：1984年期间伊朗的石油生产国估计了通货膨胀金钱模型：1-2016：4。 有人发现，理性地形成期望，并且代理是根据政府支出的变化向前寻找和调整其行为。 因此，发现较高的财政变量在长期运行中导致价格较低。 较高的油价导致该国的较低价格，但在长远来看，较高的货币供应和利率。 此外，更高的国内利率导致价格水平更高，而逆转为较高的外汇率。 伊朗的另一个原因是国外价格水平。 结果发现，在较短的情况下，实际政府支出的更高增长导致该国的较低通货膨胀率，但对外利率的积极变化带来了更高的通货膨胀率。 （c）2020 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。

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