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Spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx epidemic in western Africa

机译:西部非洲HIV-1 CRF06_cpx流行的时空动态

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Objective: To investigate the origin and spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx clade in western Africa. Design: A total of 180 HIV-1 CRF06_cpx-like pol sequences isolated from 12 different countries from west and west-central Africa over a period of 16 years (1995-2010) were analyzed. Methods: Evolutionary, phylogeographic and demographic parameters were jointly estimated from sequence data using a Bayesian coalescent-based method and combined with molecular epidemiology and spatial accessibility data. Results: The CRF06_cpx most probably emerged in Burkina Faso in 1979 (1970-1985). From Burkina Faso, the virus was first disseminated to Mali and Nigeria during the 1980s and later to other countries from west and west-central Africa. Demographic reconstruction indicates that the CRF06_cpx epidemic grew exponentially during the 1980s, with a median growth rate of 0.82 year~(-1) (0.60-1.09 year~(-1)), and after stabilize. We found a negative correlation between CRF06_cpx prevalence and the geographical distance to Burkina Faso's capital. Regional accessibility information agrees with the overall geographical range of the CRF06_cpx, but not fully explains the highly heterogeneous distribution pattern of this CRF at regional level.Conclusion: The CRF06_cpx epidemic in western Africa probably emerged at the late 1970s and grew during the 1980s at a rate comparable to the HIV-1 epidemics in the United States and Europe. Burkina Faso seems to be the most important epicenter of dissemination of the HIV-1 CRF06_cpx strain at regional level. The explanation for the current geographical distribution of CRF06_cpx is probably multifactorial.
机译:目的:研究在非洲西部传播HIV-1 CRF06_cpx进化枝的起源和时空动态。设计:在16年内(1995-2010年),对来自非洲中西部和西部的12个不​​同国家的180个HIV-1 CRF06_cpx样pol序列进行了分析。方法:使用基于贝叶斯聚结的方法,根据序列数据共同估算进化,植物学和人口统计学参数,并结合分子流行病学和空间可及性数据。结果:CRF06_cpx最有可能在1979年(1970-1985年)在布基纳法索出现。该病毒从布基纳法索首先在1980年代传播到马里和尼日利亚,然后从非洲中西部传播到其他国家。人口结构重建表明,CRF06_cpx流行病在1980年代呈指数增长,中位数增长率为0.82年〜(-1)(0.60-1.09年〜(-1)),并且在稳定之后。我们发现CRF06_cpx患病率与到布基纳法索首都的地理距离之间存在负相关关系。区域可访问性信息与CRF06_cpx的整体地理范围一致,但并未完全解释该CRF在区域一级的高度异质分布模式。结论:西非的CRF06_cpx流行病可能在1970年代末出现,并在1980年代爆发。与美国和欧洲的HIV-1流行相当。布基纳法索似乎是区域一级传播HIV-1 CRF06_cpx菌株的最重要中心。当前CRF06_cpx地理分布的解释可能是多因素的。

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