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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Climate >Differences between Arctic Interannual and Decadal Variability across Climate States
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Differences between Arctic Interannual and Decadal Variability across Climate States

机译：北极际和跨国民安国家际变异性的差异

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Long-term climate variations have the potential to amplify or dampen (human-induced) trends in temperature. Understanding natural climate variability is therefore of vital importance, especially since the variability itself may change with a changing climate. Here, we quantify the magnitude and other characteristics of interannual to decadal variability in Arctic temperature and their dependence on the climate state. Moreover, we identify the processes responsible for the state dependency of the variations, using five quasi-equilibrium climate simulations of a state-of-the-art global climate model with 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 times present-day atmospheric CO2 forcing. The natural fluctuations in Arctic temperature, including their dependence on the state of the climate, are linked to anomalous atmospheric and oceanic heat transports toward the Arctic. Model results suggest that atmospheric heat transport leads (and also controls) Arctic temperature variations on interannual time scales, whereas oceanic transport is found to govern the fluctuations on decadal time scales. This time-scale transition of atmospheric to oceanic dominance for Arctic temperature variations is most obvious when there is interannual to decadal variability in Arctic sea ice cover. In warm climates (without Arctic sea ice cover), there is no correlation between oceanic transport and surface air temperature on any time scale. In cold climates (with full Arctic sea ice cover), interaction between ocean and atmosphere is limited, leaving poleward atmospheric heat transport to be the primary driver on all time scales (interannual and decadal).
机译：长期气候变化有可能在温度下扩增或抑制（人诱导的）趋势。因此，了解自然气候变异性至关重要，特别是因为变异本身可能随着气候变化而变化。在这里，我们量化北极温度持续变异性的百分比和其他特征及其对气候状态的依赖。此外，我们识别负责变化的状态依赖性的过程，使用最新的全球气候模型的五个准平衡气候模型，其当今大气模拟0.25,0.5,1,2和4次二氧化碳强迫。北极温度的自然波动，包括​​它们对气候状况的依赖，与北极的异常大气和海洋热传输有关。模型结果表明，大气热传输引线（并且还控制）北极温度变化对持续时间尺度的变化，而海运被发现用于对划分时间尺度的波动进行控制。当北极海冰覆盖的二道态变异期间，这种时刻对北极温度变化的大气占海洋优势的过渡是最明显的。在温暖的气候（没有北极海冰盖）中，海运与表面空气温度无关，随着时间尺度没有相关性。在寒冷气候（具有全北极海冰盖）中，海洋和大气之间的相互作用受到限制，使极向大气热量传输成为主驾驶员，所有时间秤（际和额外数）。

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