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Assessing the impact of mass rape on the incidence of HIV in conflict-affected countries.

机译:评估在受冲突影响的国家中,强奸对艾滋病毒感染率的影响。

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OBJECTIVES: To quantify the potential impact of mass rape on HIV incidence in seven conflict-afflicted countries (CACs), with severe HIV epidemics, in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Uncertainty analysis of a risk equation model. METHODS: A mathematical model was used to evaluate the potential impact of mass rape on increasing HIV incidence in women and girls in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, southern Sudan and Uganda. The model was parameterized with data from UNAIDS/WHO and the US Census Bureau's International Database. Incidence data from UNAIDS/WHO were used for calibration. RESULTS: Mass rape could cause approximately five HIV infections per 100,000 females per year in the DRC, Sudan, Somalia and Sierra Leone, double the number in Burundi and Rwanda, and quadruple the number in Uganda. The number of females infected per year due to mass rape is likely to be relatively low in Somalia and Sierra Leone at 127 [median (interquartile range [IQR] 55-254)] and 156 [median (IQR 69-305)], respectively. Numbers could be high in the DRC and Uganda: 1120 [median (IQR 527-2360)] and 2172 [median (IQR 1031-4668)], respectively. In Burundi, Rwanda and Sudan, the numbers are likely to be intermediate. Under extreme conditions, 10,000 women and girls could be infected per year in the DRC and 20 000 women and girls could be infected per year in Uganda. Mass rape could increase annual incidence by approximately 7% [median (IQR 3-15)]. CONCLUSION: Interventions and treatment targeted to rape survivors during armed conflicts could reduce HIV incidence. Support should be provided both on the basis of human rights and public health.
机译:目的:为了量化大规模强奸对撒哈拉以南非洲七个艾滋病毒流行严重的受冲突影响国家(CAC)的潜在影响。设计:风险方程模型的不确定性分析。方法:在布隆迪,刚果民主共和国(DRC),卢旺达,塞拉利昂,索马里,苏丹南部和乌干达,使用数学模型评估了强奸对增加妇女和女孩的艾滋病毒感染率的潜在影响。该模型已使用UNAIDS / WHO和美国人口普查局国际数据库的数据进行了参数化。来自联合国艾滋病规划署/世界卫生组织的发病率数据用于校准。结果:在刚果民主共和国,苏丹,索马里和塞拉利昂,大规模强奸每年可能导致每100,000名女性约5例艾滋病毒感染,是布隆迪和卢旺达的两倍,乌干达的两倍。在索马里和塞拉利昂,每年因大规模强奸而感染的女性人数可能相对较低,分别为127 [中位数(四分位间距[IQR] 55-254])和156 [中位数(IQR 69-305)]。 。在刚果民主共和国和乌干达,数字可能很高:分别为1120 [中位数(IQR 527-2360)]和2172 [中位数(IQR 1031-4668)]。在布隆迪,卢旺达和苏丹,这一数字可能是中等的。在极端条件下,刚果民主共和国每年可能感染10,000名妇女和女孩,而乌干达每年可能感染20000名妇女和女孩。大规模强奸可能使年发病率增加约7%[中位数(IQR 3-15)]。结论:针对武装冲突期间强奸幸存者的干预和治疗可以减少HIV的发生。应在人权和公共卫生的基础上提供支持。

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