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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Economic Entomology >Potential Changes to Louisiana Hardwood Timber Industry Economic Contributions Following Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Invasion: An Input-Output Approach
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Potential Changes to Louisiana Hardwood Timber Industry Economic Contributions Following Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Invasion: An Input-Output Approach

机译：Louisiana Hardwood木材行业经济贡献的潜在变化祖母绿灰烬（EAB）入侵：输入输出方法

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摘要

The emerald ash borer (EAB) Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire, Coleoptera: Buprestidae) will have untold impacts on the contributions hardwood timber products provide Louisiana's economy. We modeled a scenario where ash mortality was assumed to follow a PERT-Beta distribution to kill essentially all Louisiana ash within 25 yr. Future ash mortality volumes were discounted to the present and valued using market prices to estimate a present effect on timber receipts. Assuming the dead timber would have otherwise been typical trees of average quality, stumpage was presently valued at US$1.57 million, with deliveries totaling US$3.48 million. A salvage arrangement using the double declining balance method coupled with a second PERT-Beta distribution centered upon Louisiana's current 2.84% harvest-to-inventory proportion depreciated the timber's value monthly over 1 yr. Following salvage, average stumpage revenue declined -US$1.54 million, mill deliveries fell -US$3.41 million, whereas state timber severance tax collections declined by -US$46,800. The value added and employment direct effects to Louisiana's economy averaged -US$882,400 and -41.6 jobs, respectively. The multiplier effects of these losses emanating from the timber industry resulted in additional declines averaging -US$2.56 million in value added and -45.6 jobs across the state economy on the drop in output of -US$4.51 million. The total economic effects summed to -US$3.44 million in value added and -87.1 jobs on output declines of -US$9.46 million.
机译：Amerald Ash Borer（EAB）Agrilus Planipennis（Fairmaire，Coleoptera：Buprestidae）将对硬木木材产品提供路易斯安那州经济的贡献产生了无懈可击的影响。我们建模了一种情况，其中假设灰病死亡率遵循Pert-β发行，基本上在25年内基本上所有的路易斯安那灰。未来的灰病死亡率销量折扣到现在，利用市场价格估价，以估算对木材收据的目前的影响。假设死亡木材将典型的平均水平典型的典型树木，斯普隆数目目前价值为157万美元，交货总额为348万美元。使用双层平衡方法的救助布置与落在路易斯安那州目前的第二个Pert-Beta分布相结合的2.84％的收获到库存比例贬值了木材价值超过1年。抢救后，平均稳定收入下降 - 154亿美元，轧机迁移率为341万美元，而国家木材遣散税收税收下降至46,800美元。增值和就业对路易斯安那州经济的直接影响分别为882,400美元和-41.6次工作。从木材行业发出的这些损失的乘数效应导致额外的下降平均值 - 增加了256万美元的价值，并在国内经济上的职位上涨 - 451亿美元的产量下降。总共经济效应总结为3440万美元的增值，而且产出下降至946万美元。

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