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Correcting memory improves accuracy of predicted task duration

机译：校正内存提高了预测任务持续时间的准确性

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摘要

People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through supplying feedback for actual task duration. For Experiments I (paper-counting task) and 2 (essay-writing task), college students were supplied with duration information about their previous performance on a similar task before predicting task duration. For Experiment 3, participants were recruited at various locations, such as fast food restaurants and video arcades, and supplied with average task duration for others before predicting how long the task would take. In all 3 experiments, supplying feedback increased predictive accuracy. Overall, results indicate that, when predicting duration, people do well when they rely not on memory of past task duration but instead on measures of actual duration, whether their own or that of others.
机译：人们常常不准确地预测任务期限。内存偏见解释认为，由于有多长时间任务所采取的记忆的人，这些偏置的存储器导致偏见预测的人们归因于此错误。因此，作者通过为实际任务持续时间提供反馈来检查对校正内存预测精度的影响。对于实验I（纸币任务）和2（文章写作任务），在预测任务持续时间之前，大学生在类似任务之前提供了有关其先前性能的持续时间信息。对于实验3，参与者在各个地点招募，例如快餐店和视频拱廊，并在预测任务需要多长时间之前为他人提供平均任务持续时间。在所有3个实验中，提供反馈提高预测准确性。总体而言，结果表明，当预测持续时间时，人们在依赖于过去的任务持续时间内的记忆时，人们会很好地做得好，而是在实际持续时间的措施，无论是自身还是其他人。

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