Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988–2014)

Kumar V.; Melet A.; Meyssignac B.; Ganachaud A.; Kessler W. S.; Singh A.; Aucan J.

摘要

Abstract >Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual‐to‐interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988–2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >上升海平面是小岛屿国家的关键问题。该问题在西北太平洋方面特别严重，过去60年的海平面上涨达到全球平均水平的3倍。在这项研究中，我们的目标是在该地区的选定地点（Suva，Lautoka-Fiji和Nouméma-new Caledonia）重建海平面，作为大气和海洋变量的多线性回归（MLR）。我们专注于在际际时间尺度的海平面变异性，以及1988 - 2014年期间的趋势。本地海平面首先表达为空间和质量变化的总和。然后，基于风力应力卷曲使用动力学方法作为灭菌成分的代理，随着风应力卷曲异常可以通过rossby波传播调节热量管道深度和得到的海平面。风力应力卷曲，剩余海平面，区间/化学风应力成分和海表面温度的统计学上显着的预测因子用于构建模拟当地海平面的MLR模型。虽然我们专注于本地规模，但需要调整全球平均海平面。我们的重建提供了对所选网站的海平面变异性的关键驱动程序的见解，显示虽然本地动态和全局信号调制海平面，但大多数方差由区域因素驱动。平均而言，MLR模型能够再现岛屿海平面的82％的差异，并可通过缩小气候模型来衍生出局部海平面预测。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共17页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kumar V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kumar V.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Melet A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Melet A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Meyssignac B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Meyssignac B.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ganachaud A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ganachaud A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kessler W. S.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kessler W. S.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Singh A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Singh A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Aucan J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Aucan J.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>LEGOS Université de Toulouse CNES CNRS IRD UPSToulouse France;</p> <p>Mercator OceanRamonville‐Saint‐Agne France;</p> <p>LEGOS Université de Toulouse CNES CNRS IRD UPSToulouse France;</p> <p>LEGOS Université de Toulouse CNES CNRS IRD UPSToulouse France;</p> <p>NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratorySeattle WA USA;</p> <p>PaCE‐SD University of the South PacificSuva Fiji;</p> <p>LEGOS Université de Toulouse CNES CNRS IRD UPSNouméa New Caledonia France;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=local sea levels&option=203" rel="nofollow">local sea levels;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=statistical downscaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">statistical downscaling;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：当地海平面;统计镇定; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025579390.html">Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988–2014)</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kumar V.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Kumar V.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Melet A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Melet A.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Meyssignac B.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Meyssignac B.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34643/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Geophysical Research, C. 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