Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

Sayol J. M.; Marcos M.

摘要

Abstract >This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low‐lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi‐model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter‐annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind‐waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究提出了一种新的方法来估算当地海平面上升和气候变化下的沿海地区的极端浪涌和波浪的影响场景。该方法适用于ebro delta，位于地中海西北部的有价值和脆弱的低洼湿地。在21世纪，在21世纪的区域化海平面预测中，在21世纪的区域化海平面预测中，包括热膨胀，动态变化，淡水加入和冰川等静电调整，包括热膨胀，动态变化，淡水和冰川等静压调整。特别注意的是，不确定性得到了从多模型集合的传播与季节性/年度海平面可变性联合到局部潮汐仪表观察的不确定性。除了垂直的土地运动，还集成了估计当地相对海平面的升高。另一方面，在风暴浪涌和风波的地中海盆地上的区域预测被用来评估极端事件的变化。使用它们的联合概率分布量化了浪涌和极端波的复合效果。最后，从叠加到平均海平面的极端事件的海上海平面被宣传到研究区域的高分辨率数字高度模型上，以构建21世纪中期和结束的洪水危险地图，并在两个不同的气候变化场景下。根据暴露于沿海危险的区域的百分比，每种贡献的效果已经有助于设计更有效的保护和适应措施。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共18页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sayol J. M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Sayol J. M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Marcos M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Marcos M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>IMEDEA (UIB‐CSIC)Esporles Balearic Islands Spain;</p> <p>IMEDEA (UIB‐CSIC)Esporles Balearic Islands Spain;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate change&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate change;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ebro Delta&option=203" rel="nofollow">Ebro Delta;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=flood hazard&option=203" rel="nofollow">flood hazard;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=sea level rise&option=203" rel="nofollow">sea level rise;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=storm surge&option=203" rel="nofollow">storm surge;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=wind wave&option=203" rel="nofollow">wind wave;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候变化;ebro delta;洪水危险;海平面上升;风暴浪涌;风波; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025579928.html">Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Sayol J. 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href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=邬伦&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,邬伦</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4909/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 第四纪研究 </a> </span> <span> . 1999</span><span>,第003期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-11470_thesis/02022383084.html">海平面上升影响下的珠江三角洲供水问题及措施</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=孔兰&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 孔兰</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=陈晓宏&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,陈晓宏</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=陈栋为&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,陈栋为</a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-11470/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 第一届珠江水论坛 </a> <span> <span> . 2011</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020313439693.html">基于GIS的辽河三角洲潜在海平面上升风险评估</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=崔红艳&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 崔红艳</a> <span> . 2003</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061204452201.html">基于河流径流量对近海海平面上升的评估装置及方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN110645964B </span> <span> . 2021.06.08</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120113022228.html">海平面上升和风暴潮对沿海农业区域风险的评估方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN113065770A </span> <span> . 2021-07-02</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130499897683.html">EXPRESS FLOOD MITIGATION WORKS USING ELEVATED AND OR AT GROUND LEVEL WITH TUNNEL INTEGRATED LARGE SCALE AQUEDUCT WITH NUMEROUS FUNCTIONS, WITH MAIN FUNCTION TO DIVERT FLOOD WATER OR RIVER WATER AWAY FROM CITIES IN ORDER TO FIGHT OR MITIGATE FLOOD EVENTS AND EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING, WITH DISCHARGE INVERT LEVELS TO THE SEA HIGHER THAN HIGH TIDE LEVELS</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  EP3673114A4 </span> <span> . 2021-05-05</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：快递洪水缓解工程使用升高和或地面，与隧道集成大型渡槽，具有许多功能，主要功能将洪水或河水从城市转移，以便对抗或减轻全球变暖的洪水事件和影响向海的倒置水平高于高潮水平 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130400999531.html">Express flood mitigation works using elevated and or at ground level with tunnel integrated large scale aqueduct with numerous functions, with main function to divert flood water or river water away from cities in order to fight or mitigate flood events and effect of global warming, with discharge invert levels to the sea higher than high tide levels</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  AU2018375503A1 </span> <span> . 2020-06-11</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用高架或地面高架隧道或大型功能的渡槽进行快速防洪工程，其主要功能是将洪水或河水从城市转移出去，以抗击或减轻洪水事件和全球变暖的影响，并具有排放功能向海面倒转高于涨潮 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130401508816.html">EXPRESS FLOOD MITIGATION WORKS USING ELEVATED AND OR AT GROUND LEVEL WITH TUNNEL INTEGRATED LARGE SCALE AQUEDUCT WITH NUMEROUS FUNCTIONS, WITH MAIN FUNCTION TO DIVERT FLOOD WATER OR RIVER WATER AWAY FROM CITIES IN ORDER TO FIGHT OR MITIGATE FLOOD EVENTS AND EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING, WITH DISCHARGE INVERT LEVELS TO THE SEA HIGHER THAN HIGH TIDE LEVELS</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US2020277747A1 </span> <span> . 2020-09-03</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用带有大量功能的隧道大型集成水道的高处或地面进行快速的洪水缓解，其主要功能是将洪水或河流水从城市转移到城市中，以解决或消除带有费用和收益的洪水将水位倒转至高于潮水位的海平面 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704025579928','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img 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