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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of natural gas science and engineering >Risk evaluation of oil and natural gas pipelines due to natural hazards using fuzzy fault tree analysis
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Risk evaluation of oil and natural gas pipelines due to natural hazards using fuzzy fault tree analysis

机译：采用模糊断层树分析，由于自然灾害，石油和天然气管道风险评估

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摘要

Oil and gas sector plays a major role in a country's economy. The development of large transmission pipelines for onshore and offshore gas transport is executed rapidly. These pipelines are vulnerable to natural disasters and can have a serious impact on the environment. The Potential damage to the pipeline infrastructure may contribute to increased risk of spill and thus can have an impact on the environment. Hence, the structural integrity of these pipelines is of great interest to the oil and gas companies, governments, and various stakeholders due to the probable environmental, infrastructural and financial losses in case of a structural failure. Fault tree analysis is an important risk assessment technique which treats the failure probabilities of the components as exact values for estimating the probability of the occurrence of a top event. Due to the lack of historical data for calculating the failure rate of pipelines due to natural hazards, this study aims to analyze the probability of pipeline failure by Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) with expert elicitation. Fussel-Vesely Importance measures were utilized to rank the cutsets. The proposed FFTA framework was used to analyze the occurrence of top event even in the absence of historical probability data. The results are expected to be helpful to the safety professionals while making decisions related to the risk management of oil and gas pipelines.
机译：石油和天然气部门在一个国家的经济中发挥着重要作用。陆上和海上气体运输大型传动管道的开发迅速执行。这些管道容易受到自然灾害的影响，可能对环境产生严重影响。管道基础设施的潜在损害可能导致溢出风险增加，因此可能对环境产生影响。因此，由于结构失败的情况下，这些管道的结构完整性对石油和天然气公司，政府和各种利益攸关方具有很大的兴趣。故障树分析是一种重要的风险评估技术，其将组件的故障概率视为估计最佳事件发生概率的精确值。由于缺乏用于计算由于自然灾害引起的管道故障率的历史数据，本研究旨在通过专家诱惑来分析模糊故障树分析（FFTA）管道故障的可能性。使用突发的重要措施来对切割进行排名。即使在没有历史概率数据的情况下，所提出的FFTA框架也用于分析顶部事件的发生。预计结果将有助于安全专业人士，同时制定与石油和天然气管道风险管理有关的决策。

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