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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of natural gas science and engineering >Application of unconditional simulation methods for quantifying the uncertainties in mud window design of gas reservoirs based on 3-dimensional mechanical earth modeling
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Application of unconditional simulation methods for quantifying the uncertainties in mud window design of gas reservoirs based on 3-dimensional mechanical earth modeling

机译：无条件仿真方法在基于三维机械地球建模的气藏泥浆窗设计中量化的应用

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Mud window is an inseparable part of well design. It is so crucial for having a successful drilling operation, especially in gas fields. Reliable and accurate design of mud weight is the key to having a safe wellbore. Many wellbore stability problems occur because of the inaccurate mud weight in both gas and oil reservoirs. Inaccurate and even sometimes wrong mud weight is caused by lack of adequate knowledge about the field geomechanics. Quantifying the geomechanical uncertainties allows taking the knowledge incompleteness into account. It can reduce the risks of unreliable mud weight design. The geomechanical parameters are only known at some sparse points of measurements. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the parameters in the whole reservoir as if there is a decision to drill an infill well or conduct a well work-over or side-track an old well. Geostatistical algorithms are utilized to create 3D mechanical earth modeling (MEM) of the system. Several MEM realizations are created to span the range of geomechanical uncertainty adequately. The mud window is designed under uncertainty based on Mohr-Coulomb failure criteria. In this article, at first, 1D MEMs at well locations are built by the available data, and then ordinary Kriging is used to propagate 1D MEMs onto 3D MEM. Smooth plus rough - nonlinear problem (LMAP) and Rough plus smooth - nonlinear problem (RML approximate) are the methodologies applied to quantify the geomechanical uncertainties. In the end, the optimum mud window and the corresponding uncertainty ranges are identified based on the posterior probability distribution of geomechanical parameters in one of the gas reservoirs in the south of Iran. The resulting mud window is narrower compared to the mud window designed with prior information. Consequently, mud window design would be more reliable with less possibility of kick or any wellbore instability.
机译：泥窗是井设计的不可分割的一部分。它对于具有成功的钻井操作如此至关重要，特别是在天然气场中。可靠和准确的泥浆设计是安全井筒的关键。由于两种气体和储物液中的泥浆体重不准确，因此发生了许多井筒稳定性问题。由于缺乏对现场地理学的充分知识，因此不准确甚至有时错误的泥浆。量化地质力学不确定性允许考虑知识不完整。它可以减少不可靠的泥浆重量设计的风险。地质力学参数仅在一些稀疏的测量点处知道。因此，有必要估计整个水库中的参数，好像有一个决定井井钻井或者开展良好的工作或侧向播放旧井。地质统计算法用于创建系统的3D机械地图建模（MEM）。创建了几个MEM实现以充分跨越地质力学不确定性。泥浆窗是根据Mohr-Coulomb失败标准的不确定性设计的。在本文中，首先，井位置处的1D MEMS由可用数据构建，然后普通的Kriging用于将1D MEMS传播到3D MEM上。顺畅加上粗糙 - 非线性问题（LMAP）和粗糙加上平滑 - 非线性问题（RML近似值）是应用的方法，用于量化地质力学不确定性。最后，基于伊朗南部之一的气体储层中的地质力学参数的后验概率分布来识别最佳泥浆窗和相应的不确定性范围。与具有先前信息设计的泥窗相比，由此产生的泥窗更窄。因此，泥浆窗设计将更加可靠，对踢的可能性或任何井筒不稳定。

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