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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of quaternary science: JQS >To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?
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To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

机译：在多大程度上影响了中国汉族的中国社会经济发展到五代期间的社会经济发展？

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Analysing the contribution of climate and non-climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10-year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal-scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural-socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability.
机译：分析气候和非气候变化因素对社会发展的贡献以及历史事件的发生是对气候变化影响的重要研究。本研究确定了使用粮食安全概念框架，先验知识和逻辑推理来统计分析西汉西方的三个10年的数据系列（粮食收获等级，饥荒指数和经济水平）的概念性变化影响的社会子系统指数的组合王朝以古代中国五代（210年公元前960年）。结果如下。在研究期间118年的十几十年中，社会发展与温度效应相对直接相关。在寒冷的背景下，粮食产量与全年40.7％的温度条件密切相关。分别在5.1和21.2％的经济繁荣和萧条分别与温度效应直接相关。在温暖的背景下，粮食产量与全数十年的39％密切相关。这些数十年的22和8.5％的经济繁荣和萧条分别与温度效应直接相关。世纪和十二年规模的特征是一样的。具体而言，当自然社会经济因素的主要组合主导地位时，寒冷的数十年比例略高于温暖时期。本案例研究能够科学理解气候价值观/社会发展趋势变化的影响，进一步证明了气候变化过程和机制的不同影响。气候冷却和变暖可能比某些地区的负面影响更积极，比其他地区的积极影响更为负面。复杂的反馈可以放大或减少气候冷却和变暖的影响。发展的气候不利地产生了与社会经济系统的脆弱性和适应性更强烈相关的影响。

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