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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan >Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in CMIP5 and Their Dependence on Present-Day Model Climatology
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Future Changes in Summertime East Asian Monthly Precipitation in CMIP5 and Their Dependence on Present-Day Model Climatology

机译：CMIP5夏季东亚月度降水的未来变化及其对现今模型气候学的依赖

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摘要

In order to investigate the dependence of future projections for summertime East Asian precipitation on their present-day model climatology, the models well reproducing the observed climatology over East Asia are focused on in the analysis of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) future projections for the period from 2075 to 2099 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 global warming scenario. The future projection by these models indicates that summertime monthly climatological precipitation in future East Asia is more likely systematically decreased in some regions rather than evenly increased in every wet region. The CMIP5 36-model ensemble mean monthly circulation change at 700 hPa is characterized through the future summertime by a cyclonic circulation change to the south of Japan and the associated downward motion changes around Japan. The models showing the above features more clearly tend to simulate stronger westerlies over East Asia and more tropical precipitation in the present-day northern summer climatology. Therefore, an ensemble of the models reproducing the observed westerlies over East Asia, which are stronger than the 36-model ensemble mean, tends to simulate a strong downward motion change regionally in the future East Asian summer so that the possibility of a decrease in monthly precipitation is enhanced there against the "wet-getting-wetter" effect. The future circulation change over East Asia was considered as part of the western North Pacific circulation change that responds to the future reduction of vertical motion in the vertically stabilized tropics. Large future reduction of the tropical vertical motion necessary for the strong downward motion change in East Asia can be attributed to the present-day climatology of much precipitation and large upward motion in the tropics.
机译：为了调查未来预测对夏季东亚降水的未来预测对现今模型气候学的依赖，在耦合模型互相项目的第五阶段的分析中，良好地再现观察到的气候学的模型（CMIP5 ）由于代表浓度通路8.5全球变暖情景，未来预测从2075年至2099年。这些模型的未来投影表明，在某些地区，未来东亚的夏季月度气候降水更可能在一些地区系统地减少，而不是在每个潮湿地区均匀增加。 CMIP5 36模型集合的平均每月循环变化在700 HPA的特点是通过对日本南部的循环循环变化和日本周围相关的向下动作变化的循环循环变化的特点是。展示上述功能的模型更明显地倾向于在东亚的较强的西风和现在的热带降水中的现今北方夏季气候学更加清楚。因此，在东亚再现观察到的西风的模型的集合，这些模型比36型合奏意味着强大，往往会在未来东亚夏天地区地区划分强劲的向下动作，因此每月减少的可能性沉淀在那里抵抗“湿式湿度”效果。东亚未来的循环变化被认为是西北太平洋循环变革的一部分，响应了垂直稳定的热带地区的未来减少垂直运动的减少。在东亚强劲向下运动变化所需的热带垂直动作的大幅减少可以归因于热带沉淀和大量上向上运动的当今气候学。

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