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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >The long reach of cotton in the US South: Tenant farming, mechanization, and low-skill manufacturing
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The long reach of cotton in the US South: Tenant farming, mechanization, and low-skill manufacturing

机译：美国南方棉花长途触及：租客农业，机械化和低技能制造

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This paper examines the long-run impact of cotton agriculture on local development in the US South, focusing on a novel aspect of structural change. Exploiting climate-based variation in cotton production, I show that cotton specialization in the late 19th century had a negative impact on local development that lasts through 2010. This negative relationship, however, only became evident in the second half of the 20th century. I argue that the change was caused by the mechanization of cotton production, which began in the 1950s. After the mechanization, local manufacturing absorbed displaced cotton tenants with low human capital. In response to the inflow of cotton tenants, labor productivity in manufacturing began to decline and the effects persisted in the long-run. The persistent decline in manufacturing productivity is explained by directed technical change that reduced demand for skills in manufacturing. These results indicate that, depending on the agricultural background, structural change can negatively affect the evolution of technology and productivity in the industrial sector.
机译：本文探讨了棉花农业对美国南方局部发展的长期影响，重点是结构变化的新颖方面。利用基于气候的棉花生产的变化，我表明19世纪后期的棉花专业化对持续2010年持续的地方的负面影响。然而，这种负面关系在20世纪下半叶只是显而易见。我认为这种变化是由棉花生产机械化引起的，该机械化在20世纪50年代开始。机械化后，当地制造业吸收了具有低人力资本的流离失所的棉租户。为了应对棉花租户的流入，制造业的劳动生产力开始下降，长期持续存在的效果。通过指导技术变化来解释制造生产率的持续下降，从而降低了制造技能的需求。这些结果表明，根据农业背景，结构变化可能会对工业部门的技术和生产力的演变产生负面影响。

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