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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative
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A Framework to Assess Debt Sustainability under the Belt and Road Initiative

机译：评估皮带和道路倡议下的债务可持续性的框架

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摘要

This paper proposes a framework to assess the impact of infrastructure investment expected under the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) on the debt vulnerabilities of countries located on BRI transport and connectivity corridors. In the absence of comprehensive data on investments and financing terms, key assumptions have been made estimate: i) the amounts and terms of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt financing for BRI investment, size and sectoral type of identified BRI investment, and iii) expected growth impact. BRI debt financing pected to significantly increase PPG debt in several countries. The paper assesses the debt vulnerability from investment in the medium term. In the medium term, defined as the period 2019-2023, debt financing of investment is expected to be fully disbursed while the full growth impact of BRI related infrastructure is entirely realized. In this initial phase, more than 50 percent of assessed BRI-recipient countries are estimated face elevated debt vulnerabilities post-BRI, if BRI has only a limited impact on overall growth. Most of these countries have already high debt vulnerabilities before BRI investment.
机译：本文提出了一个框架，以评估在皮带道倡议（BRI）下的基础设施投资对位于BRI运输和连接走廊的国家的债务脆弱性的影响。在没有关于投资和融资条款的综合数据的情况下，已经提出了关键假设估计：i）公共和公开保障（PPG）债务筹资的金额和条款，用于BRI投资，规模和部门类型的认定的BRI投资，以及III ）预期的增长影响。 BRI债务融资指数在若干国家明显增加PPG债务。本文评估了中期投资的债务脆弱性。在中期，定义为2019-2023期间，预计投资的债务融资将全额支付，而Bri相关基础设施的全部增长影响完全实现。在这一初步阶段，如果BRI对整体增长的影响有限，则超过50％的评估BRI-RECINATIAL国家估计较高的债务漏洞。大多数这些国家在BRI投资之前已经存在高债务漏洞。

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