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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?
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The Belt and Road Initiative: Reshaping economic geography in Central Asia?

机译：皮带和道路倡议：在中亚重塑经济地理？

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摘要

This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
机译：本文开发了中亚可计算的空间均衡模型，并用它来分析皮带和道路倡议对该地区经济的影响。 该模型捕捉了国际和水性经济单位及其彼此和世界其他地区的连通性。 如果调整机制采取常规ARMINGTON和垄断竞争的形式，在区域收入的占区域收入的不到2％的总收入范围从距离的距离和垄断竞争的形式，如果有规模的尺度和劳动力流动性的情况约为3％，则总收入率不到2％。 在后一种情况下，有大量的地理变异，有一些地区的经济活动群，收入增加了12％和当地人口的加倍，而其他地区则停滞甚至下降。

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