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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative
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Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

机译：共同运输基础设施：带和道路倡议的定量模型和估计

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This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. The model builds on Caliendo and Parro (2015) to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects on trade costs of transport infrastructure related to the initiative, the model shows that gross domestic product will increase by up to 3.4 percent for participating countries and by up to 2.9 percent for the world. Because trade gains are not commensurate with projected investments, some countries may experience a negative welfare effect due to the high cost of the infrastructure.
机译：本文介绍了一个结构普通均衡模型，分析了贸易，福利和国内共同运输基础设施总产量的影响。 在Caliendo和Parro（2015）上建立了在Caliendo和Parro（2015）上建造的，以便由于运输基础设施的改善而导致的贸易成本的变化，通过国内税收，连接多个国家。 该模型突出了基础设施投资通过跨境输入输出联动的交易影响。 然后，该框架用于量化皮带和道路倡议的影响。 利用新估计对倡议有关的运输基础设施的贸易成本影响，该模式表明，参与国家的国内生产总值将增加高达3.4％，为世界达到高达2.9％。 由于贸易增益与预计投资不相称，由于基础设施的高成本，一些国家可能会遇到负面福利效应。

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