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Polarization, foreign military intervention, and civil conflict

机译:极化,外国军事干预和民间冲突

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This paper tests whether foreign military intervention helps explain conflict by intensifying polarization. Building on the seminal papers of Montalvo and Reynal-Querol (2005) and Esteban and Ray (2011) and using a panel for 138 countries from 1960 to 2005, we confirm that ethnic polarization is a robust predictor of civil war. However, we also find that religious polarization is positively and significantly associated with civil conflict in the presence of foreign military intervention of non-humanitarian and non-neutral nature in the Middle East and North Africa, but not in the rest of the world. This type of intervention intensifies religious polarization through its effect on alienation, increasing the risk of high intensity conflict. The results provide an explanation for the high incidence of civil conflict in the Middle East and North Africa despite moderate polarization levels, obtained using the Reynal-Querol (2002) index, which is time-invariant and factors in only identity concerns.
机译:本文测试了外国军事干预是否有助于通过强化极化来解释冲突。建立在蒙塔尔沃和雷诺 - Querol(2005)和Esteban和Ray(2011年)的初始纸上,并在1960年至2005年使用一个小组,我们确认民族极化是内战的强大预测因素。然而,我们还发现,在中东和北非的非人道主义和非中性性质的外国军事干预存在下,宗教极化与民事冲突有关,但不在世界其他地方。这种干预通过其对异化的影响加剧了宗教极化,提高了高强度冲突的风险。结果为中东和北非民事冲突的高发病率提供了解释,尽管使用雷诺 - Querol(2002)指数获得了中度的偏振水平,但只有时间不变,只有身份关注的因素。

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