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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >Beyond the Quantity-Quality tradeoff: Population control policy and human capital investment
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Beyond the Quantity-Quality tradeoff: Population control policy and human capital investment

机译：超越数量质量权衡：人口控制政策和人力资本投资

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The quantity-quality tradeoff theory implies that a reduction in fertility would induce more human capital investment per child, and it is widely believed that population control policy could promote human capital levels in developing countries. China's one-child policy (OCP) has significantly reduced the fertility in the country, and popular belief holds that this policy has contributed to the enhancement in China's human capital since 1979. However, the quantity-quality tradeoff dose not present the complete truth-another crucial factor relates to which segment of the population is reduced, a critical issue that has been ignored in the literature. China's OCP is significantly more strictly implemented in urban areas than in rural areas, where human capital investment in children is significantly lower. This two-tier OCP could have significantly increased the rural-urban fertility ratio and brought about important consequences. We first emphasize the importance of such a population compositional effect, which may offset the potentially positive quantity-quality tradeoff effect on human capital. We present a simple analytic framework and quantify the relative sizes of the quantity-quality tradeoff and compositional effects. We find that the former is dominated by the latter, and that the OCP has reduced the average human capital level of China's next generation by approximately 1-2%. This novel evidence indicates that the conventional wisdom on population control may be incomplete and that its policy implications could be misleading.
机译：数量 - 质量权衡理论意味着生育率的减少将引起每个孩子的人力资本投资，并且普遍认为人口控制政策可以促进发展中国家的人力资本水平。中国的一童政策（OCP）大幅降低了该国的生育能力，普遍认为这一政策自1979年以来这一政策促进了中国人力资本的增强。然而，数量 - 质量权衡剂量不呈现完​​全真实 - 另一种关键因素涉及哪些人口减少，这是在文献中被忽视的关键问题。中国的OCP比在城市地区更严格地实施，而不是农村地区，人力资本对儿童的资本投资显着降低。这款双层OCP可能会显着提高农村城市生育率，并带来了重要的后果。我们首先强调了这种种群组成效应的重要性，这可能抵消了对人力资本的潜在积极的质量资质权衡效应。我们提出了一个简单的分析框架，量化了数量质量权衡和组成效果的相对大小。我们发现前者由后者主导，并且OCP将中国下一代的平均人力资本水平降低了大约1-2％。这种新的证据表明，人口控制的传统智慧可能是不完整的，其政策影响可能是误导性的。

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