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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and seismology >A probabilistic model of seismicity: Kamchatka earthquakes
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A probabilistic model of seismicity: Kamchatka earthquakes

机译：地震概率模型：堪察加地震

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摘要

The catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes is represented as a probability space of three objects {Omega, (F) over tilde, P}. Each earthquake is treated as an outcome omega(i) in the space of elementary events Omega whose cardinality for the period under consideration is given by the number of events. In turn, omega(i) is characterized by a system of random variables, viz., energy class k(i), latitude phi(i) , longitude lambda(i) , and depth h(i) . The time of an outcome has been eliminated from this system in this study. The random variables make up subsets in the set (F) over tilde and are defined by multivariate distributions, either by the distribution function (F) over tilde(phi, lambda, h, k) or by the probability density f(phi, lambda, h, k) based on the earthquake catalog in hand. The probabilities P are treated in the frequency interpretation. Taking the example of a recurrence relation (RR) written down in the form of a power law for probability density f(k), where the initial value of the distribution function f(k(0)) is the basic data [Bogdanov, 2006] rather than the seismic activity A(0), we proceed to show that for different intervals of coordinates and time the distribution f(elim)(k) of an earthquake catalog with the aftershocks eliminated is identical to the distribution f(full)(k), which corresponds to the full catalog. It follows from our calculations that f(0)(k) takes on nearly identical numeral values for different initial values of energy class k(0) (8 <= k(0) <= sign 12) f(k(0)). The difference decreases with an increasing number of events. We put forward the hypothesis that the values of f(k(0)) tend to cluster around the value 2/3 as the number of events increases. The Kolmogorov test is used to test the hypothesis that statistical recurrence laws are consistent with the analytical form of the probabilistic RR based on a distribution function with the initial value f(k(0)) = 2/3. We discuss statistical distributions of earthquake hypocenters over depth and the epicenters over various areas for several periods.
机译：Kamchatka地震的目录表示为三个物体的概率空间{Omega，（F）over Tilde，P}。每个地震都被视为欧米茄的欧米茄空间中的结果ωeomga（i），其在所考虑的时期的基数的基数由事件的数量给出。反过来，Omega（i）的特点是由随机变量，viz，能量类k（i），纬度phi（i），经度λ（i）和深度h（i）的系统。在本研究中，已从该​​系统中取消了结果的时间。随机变量在TildE上构成集合（F）中的子集，并由多变量分布定义，通过Tilde（PHI，Lambda，H，K）上的分布函数（F）或概率密度F（Phi，Lambda ，h，k）基于地震目录手头。概率p在频率解释中处理。以概率密度f（k）的幂律形式呈现的复发关系（RR）的示例，其中分布函数f（k（0））的初始值是基本数据[Bogdanov，2006 ]而不是震动活动A（0），我们继续表明，对于与余震的地震目录的坐标和时间的不同间隔，消除的地震目录的分布F（k）与分布F（完全）相同（ k），它对应于完整目录。从我们的计算中，F（0）（k）接受了几乎相同的数字值，对于能量类k（0）的不同初始值（8 <= k（0）<=符号12）f（k（0）） 。差异随着事件数量的越来越多地减少。我们提出了F（k（0））的值倾向于在值2/3周围聚集的假设，因为事件的数量增加。 KOLMogorov测试用于测试统计复发法与基于初始值F（k（0））= 2/3的分布函数的分析形式一致的假设。我们讨论了几个时期的各个区域的地震效率过度和震中的统计分布。

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  • 作者

    Bogdanov VV; Pavlov AV; Polyukhova AL;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Space Physics Research and Radio Wave Propagation Far East Division Russian Academy of Sciences Kamchatskii Krai Paratunka 684034 Russia;

    Institute of Space Physics Research and Radio Wave Propagation Far East Division Russian Academy of Sciences Kamchatskii Krai Paratunka 684034 Russia;

    Institute of Space Physics Research and Radio Wave Propagation Far East Division Russian Academy of Sciences Kamchatskii Krai Paratunka 684034 Russia;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 地球物理学;
  • 关键词

    cardinality; earthquake; distribution;

    机译：基数;地震;分布;

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