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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and seismology >Long-Term Earthquake Prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc, June 2019 to May 2024; Properties of Preceding Seismicity from January 2017 to May 2019. The Development and Practical Application of the LTEP Method
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Long-Term Earthquake Prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc, June 2019 to May 2024; Properties of Preceding Seismicity from January 2017 to May 2019. The Development and Practical Application of the LTEP Method

机译：Kuril-Kamchatka岛的长期地震预测（LTEP），2019年6月至5月2024年5月; 2017年1月至2019年5月前地震性的性质。LTEP方法的发展与实际应用

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This paper is concerned with results from ongoing work using the method of long-term earthquake prediction (LTEP) for the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc based on the seismic gap and seismic cycle patterns. We highlight the most important lines of research in the LTEP method during the preceding decade. A long-term forecast is provided using the basic method for the next 5 years, June 2019 through May 2024, for the most active part of the earthquake-generating zone in the region. The 20 segments of that zone have forecasts for the next 5 years, including the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of low-magnitude earthquakes (A(10)), the magnitudes of moderate-size earthquakes that are expected to occur with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum expected magnitudes and probabilities of great (M >= 7.7) earthquakes. This study continues the well-known work of S.A. Fedotov by examining space-time features of the regional seismic process for the period beginning 2017, including the great Near Islands (Aleutian) earthquake of July 17, 2017, M = 7.7. The results, as obtained here, corroborate a close relationship between the seismic process occurring in the segments that pose the highest earthquake hazard according to the LTEP and the great earthquakes in the region itself and in the adjacent seismic areas, as well as emphasizing a very high earthquake hazard for several areas at the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc; Thus it is necessary to continue and expand the ongoing work in earthquake strengthening and enhancing the level of seismic safety in those areas under the highest hazard, including the administrative center of Kamchatka Krai, the town of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
机译：本文涉及使用基于地震间隙和地震循环模式的Kuril-Kamchatka岛弧的长期地震预测（LTEP）的持续工作的结果。在前十年期间，我们突出了LTEP方法中最重要的研究。在2019年6月至5月2024年6月，使用该地区地震发电区最活跃的部分，提供了长期预测。该区的20个部分预测未来5年，包括地震循环的阶段，低幅度地震的归一化率（A（10）），预期发生的中等地震的大小0.8,0.5和0.15的概率，最大预期幅度和大（ m> = 7.7）地震的概率。本研究继续通过审查2017年初的区域地震进程的时空特征来识别众所周知的S.A. Fedotov的工作，包括2017年7月17日的伟大岛屿（Aleutian）地震，M = 7.7。结果，如本发明所获得的，证实了在段中发生的地震过程之间发生的紧密关系，这些过程根据该地区本身和邻近地震区域的LTEP和大地震，以及强调一个非常的地震Kuril-kamchatka岛弧的几个地区的高地震危害;因此，有必要继续和扩大地震加强持续的工作，并提高这些地区在最高危险中的地震安全水平，包括Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky镇堪察加·克莱行政中心。

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