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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics: The Journal of the International Association for Wind Engineering >A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones for assessing typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China
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A statistical dynamics track model of tropical cyclones for assessing typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China

机译：一种统计动力学轨道模型，用于评估东南海岸台风风危害

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AbstractAn improved full track model for tropical cyclones (TCs) based on statistical dynamics method is developed to estimate typhoon wind hazard in the coast of southeast China. The track model includes genesis model, movement model, and intensity model. The genesis model is established based upon an improved kernel probability density function with the biased cross-validation bandwidth. The movement model is developed based on the Beta and Advection Model (BAM). The intensity model consists of an auto-regression ocean intensity model and an inland decay model using the nearest neighbor method. Using the historical environment data, 1000 years TC tracks are simulated by the improved model and compared with features of the historical tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin, the results verify that the developed model performs well. Moreover, typhoon wind hazard in the coastal areas of southeast China is estimated by the improved track model combined with a parametric wind field model. Compared with the current Chinese design code, the relative differences between estimated return period velocities and those recommended in design code are less than 13.4%. The developed model enables analyzing typhoon hazard in the context of climate change, which is our future task.Highlights
机译：<！[CDATA [ 抽象 基于统计动态方法的热带旋风（TCS）改进的全轨道模型，以估算台风风危害在东南部的海岸。轨道模型包括Genesis模型，运动模型和强度模型。基于具有偏置交叉验证带宽的改进的内核概率密度函数建立了成因模型。基于β和平流模型（BAM）开发运动模型。强度模型由自动回归海洋强度模型和使用最近邻法的内陆衰变模型组成。使用历史环境数据，通过改进的模型模拟了1000年的TC轨道，并与西北太平洋（WNP）盆地的历史轨道的特征相比，结果验证了开发的模式表现良好。此外，中国东南部沿海地区的台风风灾害由改进的轨道模型与参数风场模型相结合估算。与目前的中国设计代码相比，估计返回周期速度与设计代码推荐的相对差异小于13.4％。开发的模型可以在气候变化的背景下分析台风危害，这是我们未来的任务。 突出显示 < CE：简单段id =“abspara0015”查看=“全部”>

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