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首页> 外文期刊>Agricultural Systems >A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia. (Special Issue: Designing sustainable agricultural production systems for a changing world: methods and applications.)
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A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia. (Special Issue: Designing sustainable agricultural production systems for a changing world: methods and applications.)

机译：一种参与性的整个农场建模方法，旨在了解影响并提高对澳大利亚气候变化的防范能力。 （特刊：为不断变化的世界设计可持续农业生产系统：方法和应用。）

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This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.
机译：这项研究提出了在参与式建模研究方法中使用整个农场模型来检验四个对比案例研究农场对可能的气候变化情景的敏感性。新生成的信息用于支持与参与的农民的讨论，以寻找在澳大利亚昆士兰州设计更有利可图和可持续发展的农业系统的选择。这四个案例研究在关键系统特征上形成了对比：决策时的机会主义，即灵活轮作与僵化轮作;功能，即牲畜或农作物的生产;集约化程度，即旱地与灌溉农业。在基准情景和气候变化情景（CCS）下，经过测试的战术和战略变化包括种植和放牧企业之间土地分配的变化，整个种植企业之间有限灌溉水的替代分配，以及在雨养作物中种植小麦和高粱的不同管理规则。结果表明，可能的气候变化情景的预期影响按以下递增顺序显而易见：灌溉农作物案例研究，农作物种植和放牧农场，机会主义的雨养作物农场和机会最少的雨养作物农场。我们得出的结论是，在大多数情况下，参与的农民在靠近效率边界（即利润和风险之间的关系）附近进行经营。这表明适应气候变化的选择方案可能需要从投资于开发更具创新性的耕作和放牧系统和/或对现有耕作系统进行变革来发展。我们希望，即使随着这些创新的发展，对于这些农民来说，吸收预期的气候变化似乎是非常无形且为时过早的，但适应很可能会很快进行。在变化多端，不断变化的气候中运营的复杂而动态的农场业务中，农场管理组件之间的多种相互作用，使整个农场参与式建模方法的使用成为有价值的工具，以量化替代农业系统设计的收益和取舍，以寻求提高的盈利能力和韧性。

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