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A comparison of sweet cherry chilling requirements estimated using statistical and biological approaches

机译：使用统计和生物方法估算甜樱桃寒冷要求的比较

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Many key phenological stages of temperate fruit trees are highly dependent on environmental conditions. This includes the timing of dormancy release and flowering which are essential to ensure good fruit production and quality. Global changes in environmental conditions including warmer winters and higher risks of frosts in the early spring, may lead to a wide range of problems, including poor flowering, fruit set and cross-pollination, and novel host-pest interaction. In the context of climate change, one challenge for researchers is to better understand possible impacts on flowering and subsequently to breed fruit trees adapted to future climatic conditions. Predictive models for flowering phenology provide a valuable tool to assist in this process. Here we assessed two methods to determine the chilling requirement, a key parameter to develop a predictive phenology model. Following the collection of sweet cherry flowering data recorded across Europe, we present an exploration of the chill overlapmodel for the reference 'Burlat'. The model was tested and optimised for a wide range of potential chilling requirement values. The best fit was obtained for a critical chilling requirement of 49 chill portions. Using forcing experiments, the chilling requirement was found to vary between the two experimental years (40 and 76 chill portions) and did not correspond to the statistically determined chilling requirement. These results highlight that further investigation is needed for both phenological models and experimental analyses of dormancy and flowering in order to develop more robust models based on biologically-sound parameters.
机译：温带果树的许多关键候权阶段高度依赖于环境条件。这包括休眠释放和开花的时间，这对于确保良好的果实生产和质量至关重要。全球环境条件的变化包括温暖的冬季和早春的霜冻风险，可能导致广泛的问题，包括差的开花，水果集和交叉授粉，以及新的主体害虫相互作用。在气候变化的背景下，研究人员的一个挑战是更好地了解开花可能的影响，随后培育适应未来气候条件的果树。开花候选的预测模型提供了一种有价值的工具来帮助这个过程。在这里，我们评估了两种方法来确定冷却要求，是开发预测候选模型的关键参数。在欧洲录制的甜樱桃开花数据的收集之后，我们探索了参考'Burlat'的Chill Overlapmodel。测试模型并针对各种潜在的冷却需求值进行了优化。获得了49个寒冷部分的临界冷却要求获得最佳拟合。使用迫使实验，发现冷却要求在两个实验岁月（40和76个寒冷部分）之间变化，并且与统计上确定的冷却要求没有对应。这些结果强调，蛀牙模型和实验分析需要进一步调查休眠和开花的实验分析，以便根据生物学 - 声音参数开发更强大的型号。

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