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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Horticulturae >Phenological response to the climate change of oil-bearing rose under subtropical conditions of the southern coast of the Crimea
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Phenological response to the climate change of oil-bearing rose under subtropical conditions of the southern coast of the Crimea

机译：克里米亚南部海岸的亚热带条件下储油气候变化的候选效应

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摘要

Temperature is a critical cue for most rose species and some cultivars to bloom as they have an obligate vernalization requirement for flowering. Optimization of rose flower yield requires the ability to predict the response of plants to various environmental conditions, particularly air temperature. The aim of the present study was analyzed the quantitative response for the beginning of oil-bearing rose blossom to temperature. Three phenological models were examined with respect to their suitabilityto estimate possible shifts in the timing terms blossom of oil-bearing rose due to climate change. One of the approach was pure forcing model (F) and the remaining two models were combined parallel and sequential chilling-forcing (CF) models. The starting date of temperature accumulation, base temperature and the forcing requirements were optimized on the basis of observed data. The starting date of the models was set to 1 November (CF) and 1 January (F). Phenological observations and temperature datain the period 1968-2017 were used to fit these models. Root mean square errors (RMSE) between modeled and observed oil-bearing rose blossom data varied from 4.9 to 6.2 days. The percentages of variance explained by the flowering models were mean from 62to 89%. The present study showed that the beginning of rose's blossom has moved forward since 1968 due to climate change slightly (average 2-3 days) however average air temperature during flowering since 2000 increased by 0.9 degrees. This study was funded by a research grant № 14-50-00079 of the Russian Science Foundation.
机译：温度是大多数玫瑰种类和一些品种的临界提示，因为它们具有普遍的开花的春化要求。玫瑰花卉产量的优化需要能够预测植物对各种环境条件，特别是空气温度的能力。分析了本研究的目的，对含油升至温度的开始的定量响应。根据气候变化，在估计其含油量的时序术语开花中的可能变化的适应性，检查了三种候选。其中一种方法是纯强制模型（F​​），其余的两种模型被平行合并并顺序冷却强制（CF）模型。在观察到的数据的基础上优化了温度累积，基础温度和矫正要求的起始日期。该模型的起始日期设定为11月1日（CF）和1月1日（F）。鉴于1968 - 2017年期间的鉴效性观测和温度数据用于符合这些模型。在建模和观察的含油升降升降升降数据之间的根均方误差（RMSE）从4.9到6.2天变化。开花模型解释的方差百分比为62至89％。目前的研究表明，自1968年由于气候变化略微（平均2-3天）自1968年以来，玫瑰花的开始向前升级了，然而，自2000年以来，开花期间的平均气温增加0.9度。本研究由俄罗斯科学基金会的研究授予№№14-50-00079资助。

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