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A modified fuzzy credibility constrained programming approach for agricultural water resources management-A case study in Urumqi, China

机译：农业水资源管理的一种改进的模糊可信度约束规划方法-以乌鲁木齐为例

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In this study, a modified fuzzy credibility constrained programming (MFCCP) model is developed for agricultural irrigation systems management under uncertainty. The developed MFCCP model incorporates fuzzy programming and credibility constrained programming into a modelling framework, which can solve the problems associated with uncertain parameters in fuzzy decision space when their stochastic distribution information are unavailable. Optimal schemes can be obtained in the combination of different credibility levels and various contributions from possibility and necessity to credibility. The MFCCP model is applied to a real case study in the agricultural areas of Wulabo lowland in Urumqi, which is a typical arid region in Northwest China. The results indicate that the credibility level intensely affects system net benefit, especially when it varies from 1 to 0.9. Water allocation to all crops decreases with the increasing credibility level, which is the major reason for the total benefit's shrink. The developed model can effectively specify the variety of uncertainties through provision of additional lambda information, which represents the possibility of satisfying the objective and constraints and corresponds to the decision makers' preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and reliability levels. Moreover, significantly different management strategies exist under various contribution rates of possibility and necessity to credibility, therefore the model can be adjusted according to various considerations, besides, much optimal and applicable management strategies can be expected through identifying the most appropriate contribution rate for possibility and necessity to credibility. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：在这项研究中，开发了一种改进的模糊可信度约束规划（MFCCP）模型，用于不确定条件下的农业灌溉系统管理。所开发的MFCCP模型将模糊规划和可信度约束规划结合到建模框架中，可以解决在不确定决策空间中的随机分布信息不可用时与不确定参数相关的问题。结合不同的可信度级别和从可能性，必要性到可信度的各种贡献，可以获得最佳方案。 MFCCP模型被应用于中国西北典型干旱地区乌鲁木齐市乌拉波低地农业区的实际案例研究。结果表明，可信度严重影响系统的净收益，尤其是当其从1变为0.9时。随着信誉度的提高，分配给所有农作物的水量减少，这是总收益减少的主要原因。所开发的模型可以通过提供额外的lambda信息来有效地指定各种不确定性，这代表了满足目标和约束的可能性，并且符合决策者对系统收益与可靠性水平之间权衡取舍的偏好。此外，在各种可能性和对信誉的贡献率下，存在显着不同的管理策略，因此可以根据各种考虑因素对模型进行调整，此外，通过确定对可能性和可能性的最合适的贡献率，可以预期出最佳和适用的管理策略。信誉的必要性。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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