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Whole-farm effects of livestock intensification in smallholder systems in Gansu, China.

机译:甘肃小农系统中牲畜集约化对整个农场的影响。

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Simulation models can help to identify the whole-farm economic and biophysical impacts of smallholder farmers altering their farming systems. Incorporating long-term climate-induced variability in crop and livestock production enables the implications for agricultural household income and risk to be explored over a range of seasonal conditions. In this study, a simulation model is used to answer the following question: can reducing the area used for grain production by allocating more land to lucerne (Medicago sativa) and increasing livestock numbers improve total net farm income, reduce income variability and maintain grain self-sufficiency for farmers in the Qingyang Prefecture of Gansu Province, China? This was examined for three representative farm types found in the region: a low land-labour ratio farm household, a subsistence-oriented farm household, and a livestock-focused farm household. The Integrated Analysis Tool (IAT), a simulation model of a household farming system, was used to combine crop and forage production simulations, a livestock production model and a household socio-economic model to explore the impact of changes to farming systems over a 40 year simulation period. Data from 90 surveyed households were used to define the structure of the three farm household types and to calibrate the IAT model specifically for Qingyang Prefecture. Additional livestock increased total household net incomes, increased net livestock incomes and reduced net crop incomes for the subsistence-oriented and livestock-focused farm households. For these households, the greater commitment to livestock also reduced grain self-sufficiency due to increased frequency of purchasing grain for home-consumption. Nevertheless, additional livestock reduced income variability for these households whilst improving total net income. The methodology used is useful for understanding changes in farming systems as it focuses on the feasibility and profitability of alternative enterprise mixes and incorporates climate variability. The results support current debates on targeting livestock policies towards smallholders as subsistence-oriented farm households appear to be the largest beneficiaries from livestock interventions. The analysis demonstrates that tradeoffs between net income and grain self-sufficiency are important for households, especially when they are moving from subsistence-based to market-based production.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.02.001
机译:模拟模型可以帮助确定小农改变其耕作制度的整个农场的经济和生物物理影响。将长期气候导致的农作物和牲畜生产的可变性纳入考虑因素,可以探讨在一系列季节性条件下对农业家庭收入和风险的影响。在这项研究中,使用了一个仿真模型来回答以下问题:通过分配更多土地给卢塞恩( Medicago sativa )来减少用于谷物生产的面积,增加牲畜数量可以提高农场的总净收入,减少甘肃省庆阳州农民的收入差异并保持农民的粮食自给自足?针对该地区发现的三种代表性农场类型进行了调查:低土地劳动力比率的农场家庭,以生活为生的农场家庭和以牲畜为重点的农场家庭。综合分析工具(IAT)是一种家庭农业系统的模拟模型,用于结合作物和牧草生产模拟,畜牧生产模型和家庭社会经济模型,以探索40年代农业系统变化对农业的影响模拟年。来自90个被调查家庭的数据被用来定义这三种农户类型的结构,并校准专门针对庆阳地区的IAT模型。以牲畜为生和以牲畜为重点的农户增加了牲畜,增加了家庭的总净收入,增加了牲畜的净收入,减少了农作物的净收入。对于这些家庭,由于增加购买谷物用于家庭消费的频率,对畜牧业的更大承诺也降低了谷物的自给自足。尽管如此,增加牲畜减少了这些家庭的收入差异,同时提高了总净收入。所使用的方法有助于理解农业系统的变化,因为它着眼于替代企业组合的可行性和获利能力,并纳入了气候变化。结果支持当前针对以小农户为目标的牲畜政策的辩论,因为以自给自足的农业家庭似乎是牲畜干预的最大受益者。分析表明,净收入和谷物自给自足之间的权衡对于家庭非常重要,尤其是当家庭从以生计为基础的生产转向以市场为基础的生产时。数字对象标识符http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j。 agsy.2012.02.001

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