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Cotton yields as influenced by ENSO at different planting dates and spatial aggregation levels.

机译:在不同播种日期和空间集聚水平下,棉花产量受ENSO的影响。

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important oceano-atmospheric phenomenon influencing crop production in the southeastern USA. Planting date is a major management variable that needs to be tailored to an anticipated ENSO event. Although ENSO effect may vary by planting date because crop season moves with planting date, no study has explored this effect for this region. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production in Georgia is affected by ENSO, but no study has determined the ENSO effect at spatial scales smaller than a state. This study examined the ENSO effect on cotton yields in Georgia for various planting dates at three spatial levels: county, crop reporting district, and region. Using CROPGRO-Cotton, lint yields were simulated for 97 counties and 38-107 years, depending on county, each with nine planting dates within the planting window of April 10 through June 6. Yields were separated by ENSO phase, and tests were performed to find if yields were different across ENSO phases. Analyses at different levels showed different results regarding the ENSO effect. According to county level analyses, ENSO had little and spatially less consistent effect. The effect became more evident with a shift from smaller to larger level. According to regional level analysis, yield difference among ENSO phases was minimal for average planting dates, but substantial at the ends. For planting dates before May 9, yields during La Nina phases were higher than those during the other phases. For planting dates after May 23, however, yields during El Nino phases were higher.
机译:El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)是影响美国东南部作物生产的重要海洋大气现象。播种日期是一个主要的管理变量,需要针对预期的ENSO事件进行调整。尽管ENSO的影响可能因播种期而异,因为作物季节随播种期的变化而变化,但尚无研究探讨该地区的这种影响。佐治亚州的棉花(陆地棉)生产受ENSO影响,但尚无研究确定空间尺度小于州的ENSO效应。这项研究在三个空间级别(县,农作物报告区和地区)考察了不同播种日期的ENSO对佐治亚州棉花产量的影响。使用CROPGRO棉,模拟了97个县和38-107年的皮棉产量,具体取决于县,每个皮棉在4月10日至6月6日的种植窗口内有9个播种日期。通过ENSO阶段对产量进行了分离,并进行了测试找出各个ENSO阶段的产量是否不同。不同水平的分析显示出关于ENSO效应的不同结果。根据县级分析,ENSO的影响很小,空间上也不太一致。从较小的级别到较大的级别,效果变得更加明显。根据区域水平的分析,平均播种期的ENSO阶段之间的产量差异极小,但末期则差异很大。对于5月9日之前的播种日期,拉尼娜阶段的单产高于其他阶段。但是,对于5月23日之后的播种日期,厄尔尼诺现象阶段的单产较高。

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