• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Bulletin of Pure and Applied Sciences, Sec. E. Mathematics & statistics >The effect of oil price shocks on inflation in Tanzania - an autoregressive distributed lag and vector autoregressive approach
【24h】

The effect of oil price shocks on inflation in Tanzania - an autoregressive distributed lag and vector autoregressive approach

机译：油价冲击对坦桑尼亚通货膨胀的影响 - 一种自回归分布式滞后和矢量自动评级方法

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

The import for oil in the whole world and particularly in Tanzania is heavily increasing due to the increasing number of cars, motorcycles, industries, and other machines for their operations. However, the imported oil has been going along with the imported inflation in the country. It is well known that a strong and stable inflation influences the economic growth of a country since it inspires investments, and enhances the consumers to afford purchasing of goods and service and therefore it affects the economic growth of a country. With this background, this study is conducted to examine the oil price shocks and inflation in Tanzania by including macro-economic variables such as crude oil price, inflation rate, exchange rate and GDP. The study employs the Auto- Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)approach of co-integration to establish a relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. The Vector Auto regression (VAR) approach through the Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition FEVD)technique are used to examine the impact of oil price changes on inflation and to determine the degree of responsiveness of the inflation rate to shocks using annual data from 1970-2017.The results show that, there exists a significant long run positive relationship between the inflation and the oil price. The results also show a significant long run negative relationship between the inflation and the GDP. In addition, the result from VAR approach reveals that the oil price and the exchange rate has a positive impact on the inflation while the GDP has a negative impact on the inflation. Based on the results of this study it is recommended that the government should find other source of energy to reduce heavily the importation of oil to reduce the inflationary pressure in Tanzania.
机译：由于越来越多的汽车，摩托车，行业和其他操作机器，全世界的石油进口尤其是坦桑尼亚的进口量严重增加。然而，进口石油与该国进口通货膨胀相连。众所周知，稳定稳定的通胀影响了一个国家的经济增长，因为它激发了投资，并增强消费者提供商品和服务，因此它影响了一个国家的经济增长。有了这个背景，通过包括原油价格，通货膨胀率，汇率和GDP等宏观经济变量，对坦桑尼亚进行坦桑尼亚的油价冲击和通货膨胀。该研究采用了自动回归分布式滞后（ARDL）的共同融合方法，以建立油价冲击与通货膨胀之间的关系。通过脉冲响应函数（IRF）和预测误差方差分解FEVD）技术的传染料自动回归（var）方法用于检查油价变化对通货膨胀的影响，并确定通货膨胀率对冲击的响应程度使用1970 - 2017年的年度数据。结果表明，通货膨胀与油价之间存在显着的持久关系。结果还显示了通货膨胀与GDP之间的显着延长了负面关系。此外，VAR方法的结果揭示了油价和汇率对通胀产生了积极影响，而GDP对通胀产生负面影响。基于本研究的结果，建议政府发现其他能源来源，以减少石油的进口，以减少坦桑尼亚的通胀压力。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号