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Effects of oil price on food prices in developing oil exporting countries: a panel autoregressive distributed lag analysis

机译:石油价格对发展中国家石油输出国食品价格的影响:面板自回归分布滞后分析

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摘要

This study focused on the relationship between oil and food prices in developing oil-exporting countries. Annual data sets of 31 developing oil-exporting countries were employed. The study covered a period of 13 years, spanning 2001-2013. Given the mixed stationarity processes of the variables of interest, we adopted a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289). The bound test cointegration showed a long-run cointegration to exist between food prices and oil price in the sample countries. The long-run result showed positive and significant effects of oil price on food prices while the short-run effect was also positive but insignificant We therefore conclude that oil price has a long-run positive effect on food price and recommend that developing oil-exporting countries should formulate long-term agricultural policies to insulate their economies from any global food crisis that may result from oil price changes.
机译:这项研究的重点是发展中国家石油出口国的石油和食品价格之间的关系。使用了31个发展中石油出口国的年度数据集。该研究涵盖了2001年至2013年的13年时间。给定感兴趣变量的混合平稳过程,我们采用了Pesaran等人提出的面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法。 (2001年,《应用计量经济学杂志》,第16卷,第289页)。边界检验协整表明样本国家中食品价格和石油价格之间存在长期协整关系。长期结果表明,油价对食品价格产生了积极而显着的影响,而短期影响也具有积极意义,但微不足道。因此,我们得出结论,认为油价对食品价格具有长期的积极影响,建议发展石油出口各国应制定长期农业政策,以使其经济免受石油价格变化可能导致的全球粮食危机的影响。

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  • 来源
    《OPEC energy review》 |2016年第4期|397-411|共15页
  • 作者

    David Olayungbo; Wale Hassan;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-lfe234, Nigeria;

    Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, lle-lfe, Nigeria;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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