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首页> 外文会议>International Conference on Mathematical Sciences and Technology >Panel Threshold Effect of Oil Price Changes on Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from Oil Importing versus Oil Exporting Countries
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Panel Threshold Effect of Oil Price Changes on Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence from Oil Importing versus Oil Exporting Countries

机译：货币政策对油价变化的面板阈值效应：石油进口与石油出口国的经验证据

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摘要

Many studies have shown the impact of the changes of oil price on the global economy. The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of oil price changes and other non - oil factors on monetary policy behaviour and decision empirically. Generally, this study investigates the monetary policy reaction of oil importing versus oil exporting countries in response to the threshold effect of oil price changes and inflation. An advanced panel threshold regression is employed to study the money policy reaction function for the quarterly period from 1999 to 2016. For oil exporting countries, our results revealed that the existence of double - threshold effect of the oil price changes and inflation on monetary policy reaction. Also, results capture that the threshold effects of inflation and changes of oil price in determining the monetary policy reaction in both groups of countries. In both cases, higher inflation triggers to expansionary policy in which oil exporting exhibits a higher threshold inflation rate (4.63% and 16.37%) compared to oil importing countries (1.11% and 4.97%). On the other hand, oil price changes imposed a higher threshold impact on monetary policy among oil exporting countries compared to the oil importing countries. The results imply both oil and non-oil inflation are the main policy concern in oil exporting countries. However, non-oil (consumer price) inflation is the only concern of policy reaction in oil importing countries.
机译：许多研究表明石油价格变化对全球经济的影响。本研究的主要目的是审查石油价格变化和其他非石油因子对凭证的货币政策行为和决策的影响。一般来说，本研究调查了石油进出口的货币政策反应，以响应石油价格变化和通货膨胀的阈值效应。采用先进的面板阈值回归研究1999年至2016年季度期间的金钱政策反应职能。对于石油出口国，我们的结果表明，石油价格变化的双阈值效应和货币政策反应的通货膨胀。此外，结果捕获通胀的阈值效应和石油价格变化在确定两组国家的货币政策反应时。在这两种情况下，与石油进口国相比，较高的通货膨胀率触发到扩张政策，其中石油出口表现出较高的阈值通胀率（4.63％和16.37％）（1.11％和4.97％）。另一方面，与石油进口国相比，石油价格变动对石油出口国的货币政策对货币政策产生了更高的阈值影响。结果意味着石油和非石油通货膨胀均为石油出口国的主要政策问题。然而，非石油（消费者价格）通货膨胀是石油进口国政策反应的唯一关注。

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