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Abrupt Climate andWeather Changes Across Time Scales

机译：突然的气候和天气在横跨时间尺度变化

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摘要

The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes.We explore the nonlinear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system.We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of interevent waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1,150 yr are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1,500 yr cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial-to-millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large-scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multiscale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events.
机译：过去提供了气候突变以及气候和极端天气频率变化的证据。我们探索非线性响应轨道强迫，然后考虑气候千年变化下降到日常天气事件。轨道变化转化为温度的区域响应，其中岁差响应与系统中的非线性和季节性偏差有关。我们通过分析事件间等待时间的分布来质疑气候事件中发现的规律性。除了显著的1500年周期外，冰芯中还发现了大约900年和1150年的周期。然而，这种变异性仍然无法与随机过程区分开来，这表明百年到千年的变异性本质上是随机的。发展了新的数值技术，使海岸、主要上升流区和高纬度等动态相关区域具有高分辨率。利用这个模型，我们发现大西洋经向翻转环流对冰消融水注入的位置有很强的敏感性。进入密西西比河和拉布拉多附近的融水几乎不会影响大规模的海洋环流，而模拟冰山的亚极地冲洗则会产生准关闭。同样的多尺度方法也适用于放射性碳模拟，从而能够对海洋沉积物岩芯进行动态解释。最后，在最近的气候记录中，突发气候事件也有相应的记录，揭示了气候变异性、北大西洋天气模式统计数据和极端事件之间的密切联系。

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  • 来源
    《Paleoceanography》 |2020年第9期|共38页
  • 作者

    Gerrit Lohmann; Martin Butzin; Nina Eissner; Xiaoxu Shi; Christian Stepanek;

  • 作者单位

    AlfredWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany;

    AlfredWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany;

    AlfredWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany;

    AlfredWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany;

    AlfredWegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 海洋学;
  • 关键词

    Abrupt; Climate; Weather;

    机译：突然;气候;天气;

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