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首页> 外文期刊>Annals of the Association of American Geographers >Climate Change and Risk Projection: Dynamic Spatial Models of Tsetse and African Trypanosomiasis in Kenya
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Climate Change and Risk Projection: Dynamic Spatial Models of Tsetse and African Trypanosomiasis in Kenya

机译：气候变化和风险预测：肯尼亚的采采蝇和非洲锥虫病的动态空间模型

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摘要

African trypanosomiasis, otherwise known as sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in animals, is a parasitic protist passed cyclically by the tsetse fly. Despite more than a century of control and eradication efforts, the fly remains widely distributed across Africa and coextensive with other prevalent diseases. Control and planning are hampered by spatially and temporally variant vector distributions, ecologically irrelevant boundaries, and neglect. Tsetse are particularly well suited to move into previously disease-free areas under climate change scenarios, placing unprepared populations at risk. Here we present the modeling framework ATcast, which combines a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with a temporally and spatially dynamic species distribution model to predict tsetse populations over space and time. These modeled results are integrated with Kenyan population data to predict, for the period 2050 to 2059, exposure potential to tsetse and, by association, sleeping sickness and nagana across Kenya.
机译：非洲锥虫病，又称人类昏睡病和动物长颈鹿，是一种由采采蝇蝇周期性传播的寄生虫。尽管进行了一个多世纪的控制和根除努力，但这种蝇仍然在非洲各地广泛分布，并与其他流行疾病共存。控制和规划受到空间和时间变化的矢量分布，与生态无关的边界以及忽视的阻碍。采采蝇特别适合在气候变化的情况下迁入以前无病的地区，使无准备的人群处于危险之中。在这里，我们介绍了建模框架ATcast，该框架将动态缩小的区域气候模型与时空动态物种分布模型相结合，以预测采采蝇种群随时间和空间的变化。将这些模拟结果与肯尼亚人口数据相结合，以预测2050年至2059年期间采采蝇的暴露潜力，并据此预测整个肯尼亚的昏睡病和长颈鹿。

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