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Statistical Evaluation of Forensic DNA Profile Evidence

机译：法医DNA谱证据的统计评估

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摘要

The evaluation of weight of evidence for forensic DNA profiles has been a subject of controversy since their introduction over 20 years ago. Substantial progress has been made for standard DNA profiles, but new issues have arisen in recent years with the advent of more sensitive profiling techniques, allowing profiles to be recovered from minuscule amounts of possibly degraded DNA. These low-template DNA profiles suffer from enhanced stochastic effects, including dropin, dropout, and stutter, which pose problems for DNA profile evaluation. These problems are now beginning to be overcome with the emergence of several statistical models and software. We first review the general principles of statistical evaluation of DNA profile evidence, and we then focus on low-template DNA profiles, briefly reviewing the main statistical models and software. We cover methods that use allele presence/absence and those that use electropherogram peak heights, focusing on the likelihood ratio as measure of evidential weight.
机译：自20年前问世以来，对法医DNA概况的证据权重的评估一直是一个引起争议的话题。标准DNA谱已取得实质性进展，但近年来随着更灵敏的分析技术的出现，出现了新问题，可从极少量的可能降解的DNA中恢复谱。这些低模板DNA谱具有增强的随机效应，包括dropin，dropout和stutter，这为DNA谱评估带来了问题。这些问题现在随着几种统计模型和软件的出现而开始得到克服。我们首先回顾DNA谱证据的统计评估的一般原则，然后我们关注低模板DNA谱，简要回顾主要的统计模型和软件。我们涵盖了使用等位基因存在/不存在的方法以及使用电泳图峰高的方法，重点是似然比作为证据权重的量度。

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