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首页> 外文期刊>ANZ journal of surgery >Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history.
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Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history.

机译：有家族病史的澳大利亚女性患乳腺癌的绝对风险。

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BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. METHODS: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. RESULTS: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. CONCLUSIONS: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.
机译：背景：本文旨在评估具有不同家族史的澳大利亚女性一生中剩余乳腺癌的绝对风险。方法：针对年龄的乳腺癌发生率进行筛查调整，并使用归因分数（AF）评估无家族史的乳腺癌发生率。应用已发表的荟萃分析的相对风险来获得不同类别家族史的发病率，并将特定年龄的发病率转换为乳腺癌的累积风险。风险估算基于澳大利亚人口统计数据并发布了相对风险。乳腺癌的发病率来自1996年来自新南威尔士州的妇女。AF的使用是根据昆士兰州妇女的数据得出的乳腺癌家族史的发生率来计算的。乳腺癌的绝对绝对风险是根据十年和十年中期至79岁的年龄计算得出的，未根据竞争性死亡原因进行调整。结果：普通人群的终生风险约为8.6％（12分之一），无家族史的人群终生风险约为7.8％（13分之一）。一名亲戚受到影响的妇女的一生风险为6-8分之一，而两名亲戚受到影响的妇女的一生风险为4-6分之一。累积的剩余终身风险随着年龄的增长而降低;到60岁时，只有一个亲戚受到影响的所有组在79岁时不患乳腺癌的可能性要高出90％以上。结论：这些澳大利亚风险统计资料对于公共信息和临床环境很有用。此处给出的风险适用于因其他风险因素平均患乳腺癌的女性。

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