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Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

机译:预测俄罗斯和乌克兰货币市场的变化

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As non-residents withdraw from the Russian assets, the geopolitical risk premium plays the major role in the rouble dynamics in January. The forecast assumes a moderately optimistic scenario, under which the rate will exceed $1 = RUB 79 just for few days at the turn of January and February, followed by a partial ease of tensions and a return of the rouble to mid-January positions. In case of escalation, the exchange rate may significantly exceed $1 = RUB 80 and stay at the peak for about two weeks, while massive and comprehensive de-escalation may bring it back to $1 = RUB 74?-75, as mentioned in the previous issue.
机译:随着非居民退出俄罗斯资产,地缘政治风险溢价在一月份在卢布动态中起着主要作用。 预测假设了一个中等乐观的情况,在该场景下,在1月和2月之交几天,费率将超过$ 1 = rub 79,随后又有部分紧张局势以及卢布返回到夏天中期的职位。 在升级的情况下,汇率可能会大大超过$ 1 = rub 80,并保持峰值约两个星期,而大规模和全面的降级可能会使它恢复到$ 1 = rub 74?-75,如前所述 问题。

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