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首页> 外文期刊>Animal >Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses.
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Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses.

机译：通过使用不同方法对产量损失进行建模的随机模拟评估，奶牛群中临床乳腺炎的经济影响。

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The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model reflects the fact that in different stages of lactation, CM gives rise to different yield-loss patterns or postulates just one type of yield-loss pattern irrespective of when, during lactation, CM occurs. A dynamic and stochastic simulation model, SimHerd, was used to study the effects of CM in a herd with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing a single yield-loss pattern irrespective of when, during the lactation period, the cow develops CM - was compared with a new modelling strategy in which CM was assumed to affect production differently depending on its lactational timing. The effect of the choice of reference level when estimating yield losses was investigated by comparing the results obtained using the potential yield of mastitic cows, had they not developed CM, with those obtained using the yield of non-mastitic cows. The yearly maximum avoidable cost of CM at herd level was estimated at Euro 14 504, corresponding to 6.9% of the net return given the initial incidence of CM. Expressed per cow-year, the maximum avoidable cost was Euro 97. The cost per case of CM was estimated at Euro 428. Herd types all responded in a similar manner to the reduced relative risk of CM. There were no major differences in the results obtained using the new and the conventional modelling strategy, with the exception of the cost per case of CM. Similarities between the results obtained using the two methods were particularly evident when the mastitic cows' own yield level, had they not developed CM, was used as the reference for production in healthy cows when yield losses were estimated. It was concluded that the conventional way of modelling yield losses is adequate and should, for the foreseeable future, be used in decision support systems.
机译：本研究的主要目的是研究在目前的瑞典农业条件下，降低畜群水平的临床乳腺炎（CM）发病率的经济后果。第二个目标是询问CM的估计成本是否改变，具体取决于模型是否反映了以下事实：在哺乳的不同阶段，CM会导致不同的产量损失模式，或者仅假设一种类型的产量损失模式，而与何时无关，在哺乳期间，发生CM。使用动态随机模拟模型SimHerd来研究CM对150头牛群（每头牛9000千克经能量校正的牛奶）的影响。通过生产水平和生殖能力定义了四种畜群类型，以研究畜群类型与降低CM风险的反应之间可能的相互作用。研究了给定CM初始发病率（每100牛年25.6个）的技术和经济结果，以及在整个泌乳期将CM初始风险降低50％和90％的后果，以及降低CM初始风险的后果。在达到最高产量之前分别为50％和90％。将传统的模拟产量损失的方法（即，在泌乳期不考虑母牛何时生长CM的情况下采用单一的产量损失模式）与一种新的建模策略进行了比较，在该策略中，假定CM对生产损失的影响不同。哺乳时间。通过比较使用乳化母牛的潜在产量（未发育成CM）和使用非乳化母牛的产量所获得的结果，研究了选择参考水平在估计产量损失时的效果。在牧群水平上，每年平均可避免的CM成本估计为14504欧元，相当于CM初始发病率时的净回报的6.9％。以每头牛年计，可避免的最大成本为97欧元。每箱CM的成本估计为428欧元。所有牧群类型对CM相对风险的降低反应相似。使用新的和传统的建模策略获得的结果没有重大差异，除了每例CM的成本。当估算出产量损失时，如果乳牛自身的产量水平没有发展为CM作为健康奶牛的生产参考，则使用这两种方法获得的结果之间的相似性就特别明显。结论是，对产量损失进行建模的常规方法已足够，并且在可预见的将来应在决策支持系统中使用。

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