首页> 外文期刊>Applied Geography >Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida. (Special Issue: Climate change and applied geography - place, policy, and practice.)
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Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida. (Special Issue: Climate change and applied geography - place, policy, and practice.)

机译:潜在海平面上升对佛罗里达州萨拉索塔县遭受飓风风暴潮危害的社会脆弱性的影响。 (特刊:气候变化和应用地理-地点,政策和实践。)

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Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.Digital Object Identifier http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.05.005
机译:尽管在当前气候条件下发生飓风的可能性继续威胁沿海社区,但人们担心气候变化,特别是海平面的潜在上升可能会影响未来飓风的影响。为了研究海平面上升对社区对未来飓风的脆弱性的潜在影响,我们评估了佛罗里达州萨拉索塔县,当代飓风风暴潮危害以及因海平面上升情景而增强的风暴潮危害的社会经济影响差异。分析表明,人口的大部分,经济活动和关键设施都位于当代和未来的飓风风暴潮危害区域。海平面上升到当代风暴潮危害区域中有效地导致人口和资产(基础设施,自然资源等)的暴露等于或大于下一更高当代当代Saffir-Simpson飓风类别的危害区域。社区之间这种增加的暴露程度存在差异,随着人们沿着海岸线向南前进,由于风暴潮危害区域的海平面增加,社会经济暴露程度也有了更大的增加。对2050年土地综合利用计划的分析表明,为控制萨拉索塔县住宅,经济和基础设施发展的未来增长而做出的努力可能会增加社会遭受飓风风暴潮危害的风险。数字对象标识符http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.apgeog.2010.05.005

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