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Policy-relevant indicators for mapping the vulnerability of urban populations to extreme heat events: A case study of Philadelphia

机译:与政策相关的指标,用于绘制城市人口易受极端热事件影响的图表:以费城为例

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The recent global increase in extreme heat events linked to climate change is projected to continue. The additive effect of urban heat islands from impervious surfaces and urban heat emissions (e.g., from transportation and building cooling) exacerbates extreme heat events in urban areas, exposing dense populations to extreme heat with implications for human health. Ground- and satellite-based data on urban and suburban temperatures and vegetation over a historical period can help identify temporal and geospatial trends in heat exposure. A set of indicators has been developed to map the exposure, social sensitivity, and vulnerability of urban populations to heat wave health impacts. Guided by an Advisory Group of local planners in the pilot city of Philadelphia, localized trends of increasing urban extreme heat events using MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, confirmed with urban and non-urban temperature monitor data were identified. For the Philadelphia study area, the number of heat-event days in the urban setting has increased from approximately 4 days in 1980 to almost 12 days in 2013, while the non-urban setting has consistently experienced 5 days of heat events per year across the time period. Warmer micro-climates with limited vegetative cooling and elevated LSTs were also identified. The exposure indicator was combined with areas of high social sensitivity (e.g., low-income and elderly) to create a vulnerability indicator, showing significant overlap between highly exposed and highly sensitive populations. As a measure of the adaptive capacity of local governments to reduce the urban heat island, evidence of targeted vegetation increases or reduced localized temperatures linked to urban greening and cooling programs were sought, though none were of a scale to be identified by the 1 km satellite data utilized. The indicators have helped local decision makers to understand patterns of vulnerability, and may be used in the future to target adaptation actions and measure results (LST reduction or vegetation increase) from existing adaptation actions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
机译:预计全球与气候变化有关的极端高温事件的近期增长将继续下去。不可渗透的表面和城市热量散发(例如,运输和建筑物降温)引起的城市热岛的相加作用加剧了城市地区的极端热事件,使人口稠密的人群暴露于极热之下,这对人类健康产生了影响。有关历史时期内城市和郊区温度和植被的地面和卫星数据可以帮助识别热量暴露的时间和地理空间趋势。已经开发了一套指标来绘制城市人口对热浪健康影响的暴露程度,社会敏感性和脆弱性。在费城试点城市的地方规划师咨询小组的指导下,使用MODIS地表温度(LST)数据确定了城市极端高温事件增加的局部趋势,并通过城市和非城市温度监测器数据进行了确认。对于费城研究区,城市环境中的热事件天数从1980年的约4天增加到2013年的近12天,而非城市环境在整个城市中每年始终经历5天的热事件。时间段。还确定了具有有限的植物降温和升高的LST的更温暖的小气候。暴露指标与社会敏感度高的地区(例如低收入和老年人)相结合,创建了脆弱性指标,显示了高度暴露和高度敏感的人群之间存在明显的重叠。为了衡量地方政府减少城市热岛的适应能力,寻求了与城市绿化和降温计划相关的目标植被增加或局部温度降低的证据,尽管没有一个可以通过1 km卫星确定的规模使用的数据。这些指标已帮助当地决策者了解脆弱性的模式,将来可用于确定适应行动的目标并衡量现有适应行动的结果(降低LST或增加植被)。 (C)2015作者。由Elsevier Ltd.发布

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