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首页> 外文期刊>Archives of Internal Medicine >Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes.
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Development and validation of an all-cause mortality risk score in type 2 diabetes.

机译：开发和验证的所有原因死亡率在2型糖尿病风险评分。

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BACKGROUND: Diabetes reduces life expectancy by 10 to 12 years, but whether death can be predicted in type 2 diabetes mellitus remains uncertain. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 7583 type 2 diabetic patients enrolled since 1995 were censored on July 30, 2005, or after 6 years of follow-up, whichever came first. A restricted cubic spline model was used to check data linearity and to develop linear-transforming formulas. Data were randomly assigned to a training data set and to a test data set. A Cox model was used to develop risk scores in the test data set. Calibration and discrimination were assessed in the test data set. RESULTS: A total of 619 patients died during a median follow-up period of 5.51 years, resulting in a mortality rate of 18.69 per 1000 person-years. Age, sex, peripheral arterial disease, cancer history, insulin use, blood hemoglobin levels, linear-transformed body mass index, random spot urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and estimated glomerular filtration rate at enrollment were predictors of all-cause death. A risk score for all-cause mortality was developed using these predictors. The predicted and observed death rates in the test data set were similar (P > .70). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 for 5 years of follow-up. Using the risk score in ranking cause-specific deaths, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 for genitourinary death, 0.85 for circulatory death, 0.85 for respiratory death, and 0.71 for neoplasm death. CONCLUSIONS: Death in type 2 diabetes mellitus can be predicted using a risk score consisting of commonly measured clinical and biochemical variables. Further validation is needed before clinical use.
机译：背景:糖尿病降低预期寿命1012年,但死亡是否可以预测在2型糖尿病仍不确定。方法:前瞻性群组7583 2型自1995年以来,糖尿病患者登记2005年7月30日审查,或者经过6年的随访中,哪个是第一位的。三次样条模型被用来检查数据线性和linear-transforming发展公式。训练数据集和测试数据集。模型是用于开发风险在测试中得分数据集。评估在测试数据集。619年的中位随访期间患者死亡5.51年,导致死亡18.69每1000人每年。外周动脉疾病、癌症的历史,胰岛素使用,血液中血红蛋白含量,linear-transformed身体质量指数,随机位置尿albumin-creatinine比率和估计肾小球滤过率在招生全因死亡的预测因子。全因死亡率是使用这些开发的预测因子。利率在测试数据集相似(P >2)。特性曲线是5年的0.85随访。各种原因的死亡,下的面积接受者操作特性曲线为0.95泌尿生殖器的死亡,0.85的循环死亡,呼吸死亡0.85,0.71肿瘤死亡。糖尿病可以使用风险预测分数一般测量临床组成和生化变量。需要在临床使用。

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