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首页> 外文期刊>Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences >The Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to reconstructing population dynamics and size from settlement data: demography of the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition at Lepenski Vir
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The Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to reconstructing population dynamics and size from settlement data: demography of the Mesolithic-Neolithic transition at Lepenski Vir

机译：从定居数据重建人口动态和规模的近似贝叶斯计算方法：Lepenski Vir中石器-新石器时代的人口统计学

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摘要

Demographic aspects of prehistoric populations have an important role in current archaeological theory and empirical research. In this study, we develop a method to estimate population dynamics and population size and apply it to data on house remains at one of key European Mesolithic-Neolithic transitional sites - Lepenski Vir (Serbia). Lepenski Vir is a site located in the Danube Gorges, well-known for its trapezoidal house floors and stone sculpture. It was most intensively occupied between similar to 6200 and similar to 6000 cal BC, the so called Transitional phase, which corresponds to the beginning of the Neolithic in Central Balkans. We combine archaeological evidence and ethnographic information with mathematical models of population dynamics and house accumulation within a Bayesian framework (Approximate Bayesian Computation) to derive posterior distributions of growth rate and population size estimates for the Lepenski Vir population in this period.
机译：史前人口的人口统计方面在当前的考古学理论和实证研究中具有重要作用。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种估算种群动态和种群数量的方法，并将其应用于欧洲重要的中石器时代至新石器时代过渡地点之一Lepenski Vir（塞尔维亚）的房屋残留数据。 Lepenski Vir位于多瑙河峡谷，这里以梯形的房屋地板和石雕而闻名。它在类似于6200和类似于公元前6000 cal的所谓“过渡期”之间占据了最密集的位置，这对应于巴尔干中部新石器时代的开始。我们将考古证据和人种学信息与贝叶斯框架内的人口动态和房屋积累的数学模型（近似贝叶斯计算）相结合，以得出该时期Lepenski Vir人口的增长率和人口规模估计的后验分布。

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