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2016: a mixed year for global refiners

机译:2016年:全球炼油厂混合的一年

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摘要

Ater refiners around the worldwide reported record margins last year amid low crude prices and strong gasoline demand, the outlook for refining in 2016 looks less certain. US refiners are already suffering from a drop in distillate margins this year due to ongoing oversupply in heating oil and ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) due to a mild winter so far combined with a decrease in industrial activity. This drop in distillate margins has led to US refiners seeing margins so far this Jan. remain below year-ago levels. Some analysts are also concerned that the renewed strength in US gasoline that refiners enjoyed last year will not be sustained this year, potentially pressuring margins during the summer months. The US EIA does note that implied gasoline demand so far in 2016 is 7 above historical norms for this time of year, lending some bullish sentiment that the strong gasoline demand seen last year will continue through 2016. Despite the increase in gasoline demand so far this year, the EIA forecasts gasoline consumption rising by just 70K b/d in 2016, down from 240K b/d in 2015. Overall liquids consumption in the US is forecast to grow by 160K b/d this year, down from 270K b/d last year.
机译:水炼油企业在全球报告记录在原油价格低、利润去年汽油需求强劲,精炼的前景在2016年看起来不那么确定。已经遭受馏分的下降今年的利润将持续供应过剩超低硫柴油取暖油和超低硫柴油()到目前为止由于暖冬结合减少工业活动。馏分油的利润导致了美国炼油商看到1月仍低于上年同期利润到目前为止的水平。新的力量在美国炼油厂的汽油享受去年不会持续年,可能迫使期间利润夏季。汽油需求到目前为止是2016年的7%以上每年的这个时候,贷款历史标准一些乐观情绪,强大的汽油去年见过的需求将会持续到2016年。尽管目前汽油需求的增加今年,环评预测汽油消费只上涨了70 k b / d, 2016年低于240 k2015年b / d。我们预计今年增长160桶,从去年的270 k b / d。

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