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A modeler's perspective: A commentary on Schoemaker 2020

机译：modeler的角度来看:一个评论

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This commentary provides the perspective of a modeler on Schoemaker's suggestion of the use of historical analysis to enrich scenario planning.Schoemaker states, “The word forecasting captures this very notion, suggesting that the momentum of the past casts itself forward, with action and reaction producing repetitive cycles.” We need to acknowledge that any forecast depends on the structuralconditions of the past which repeat themselves in the future. This situation puts the observer in an interesting position because it has to recognize the existing past structure and be able to extrapolate it into the future through the forecasting model. Considering the biases that observers have, especially in terms of the choice of variables that they want to extrapolate, it is clear the reading of the past is subject to biases in the same way as the choice of variables in a forecasting model. Somehow, the belief that “the future is partly predictable because it is causally connected to the fabrics of the past and present” may be an illusion from the observer in the present, as Keynes said “ideas shape the course of history” or Twain suggested "the very ink with which history is written is merely fluid prejudice." Similarly, the accuracy of any forecasting model depends on the variables that are included in it, as well as the repeatability of the forecast since forecast models learn from theirown mistakes to adjust their accuracy. However, I have not seen many historical books corrected based on lessons from similar events that happen later.
机译：这个评论提供的角度来看modeler舒梅克的建议的使用历史分析,丰富的场景规划。抓住了这个概念,这表明过去投势头本身,行动和反应产生重复周期。”我们需要承认,任何预测决定在过去的structuralconditions在未来重复自己。使观察者在一个有趣的位置因为它必须认识到现有的过去结构和能够推断到未来的预测模型。观察人士的偏见,特别是在条件变量的选择他们想要的东西浮想联翩,很明显的阅读过去受偏见一样选择变量的预测模型。不知何故,相信“未来的部分可预测的,因为它是有着因果联系过去和现在的面料”可能是一个从观察者在现在,幻想凯恩斯说“思想塑造历史的进程”或吐温建议”的墨水历史是仅仅是书写液偏见。”同样,任何预测模型的准确性取决于所包含的变量,以及预测的可重复性因为从各自的预测模型错误来调整他们的准确性。没有见过许多历史书纠正吗基于教训类似事件发生以后。

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