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Time-dependent metrics to assess performance prediction systems

机译：用于评估性能预测系统的瞬态指标

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Purpose The goal is to assess performance prediction systems (PPS) that are used to assist at-risk learners.Design/methodology/approach The authors propose time-dependent metrics including earliness and stability. The authors investigate the relationships between the various temporal metrics and the precision metrics in order to identify the key earliness points in the prediction process. Authors propose an algorithm for computing earliness. Furthermore, the authors propose using an earliness-stability score (ESS) to investigate the relationship between the earliness of a classifier and its stability. The ESS is used to examine the trade-off between only time-dependent metrics. The aim is to compare its use to the earliness-accuracy score (EAS).Findings Stability and accuracy are proportional when the system's accuracy increases or decreases over time. However, when the accuracy stagnates or varies slightly, the system's stability is decreasing rather than stagnating. As a result, the use of ESS and EAS is complementary and allows for a better definition of the point of earliness in time by studying the relation-ship between earliness and accuracy on the one hand and earliness and stability on the other.Originality/value When evaluating the performance of PPS, the temporal dimension is an important factor that is overlooked by traditional measures current metrics are not well suited to assessing PPS’s ability to predict correctly at the earliest, as well as monitoring predictions stability and evolution over time. Thus, in this work, the authors propose time-dependent metrics, including earliness, stability and the trade-offs, with objective to assess PPS over time.
机译：目的是评估性能的目标预测系统(PPS)用于协助有危险的学习者。提出包括时间指标早熟和稳定性。各种时态之间的关系为了度量和精度指标识别关键早熟点预测过程。为计算早熟。建议使用一个earliness-stability评分(ESS)调查之间的关系早熟的分类器及其稳定性。ESS只是用来检查之间的权衡时间指标。使用earliness-accuracy得分(EAS)。当系统的准确性增加成比例随着时间的推移或减少。准确性停滞或略有不同,系统的稳定性降低而不是停滞不前。补充和允许一个更好的吗定义的时间点的早熟研究早熟和之间的关系一方面,早熟和准确性稳定。pp的性能,评估时间尺寸是一个重要因素忽视了传统的措施指标不适合评估PPS的最早预测正确,以及监测稳定性和预测随着时间的推移演变。提出时间指标,包括早熟、稳定和权衡,目的评估PPS。

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