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Firm Expectations and Economic Activity

机译：企业预期和经济活动

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摘要

We assess how firm expectations about future production impact current production and pricing decisions. Our analysis is based on a large survey of firms in the German manufacturing sector. To identify the causal effect of expectations, we rely on the timing of survey responses and match firms with the same fundamentals but different views about the future. Firms that expect their production to increase (decrease) in the future are 15 percentage points more (less) likely to raise current production and prices, compared to firms that expect no change in production. In a second step, we show that expectations also matter even if they turn out to be incorrect. Lastly, we aggregate expectation errors across firms and find that they account for about 15 of aggregate fluctuations.
机译：我们评估公司对未来的预期生产影响当前的生产和定价决策。德国制造业的调查公司部门。预期,我们依靠的时间调查反应和匹配的公司一样的基本面,而不同的看法的未来。增加(减少)在未来15高出(少)可能会引起当前的生产和价格,而公司希望在生产中没有变化。一步,我们甚至表明预期也重要如果他们是不正确的。总期望在公司和错误发现他们约占总量的15%波动。

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