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Geospatial Analysis of Invalid Voting in the 2019 Presidential Election in Nigeria

机译：2019年尼日利亚总统选举无效投票的地理空间分析

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摘要

The extant literature on electoral behaviour has been confined to voter turnout and the dynamics of voter choice, with scanty evidence on the predictors of invalid voting in developing countries. To this end, this study examines the patterns and predictors of invalid voting in the 2019 presidential election in Nigeria, which recorded the highest invalid votes in the electoral history of the country. The patterns of invalid voting were determined using the Global and Local Moran's Indexes while the predictors were identified with the aid of the ordinary least squares regression and the geographically weighted regression techniques. Findings of the study indicate population density, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and access to broadcast media as significant predictors of invalid voting in Nigeria. However, there were spatially varying levels in the effects of these predictors across the country. The study finds evidence that population density, GDP per capita, and access to broadcast media have more influence on invalid voting in northern Nigeria than the southern region. The study recommends an improvement in the socio-economic conditions of the voters to lower invalid voting in Nigeria.
机译：现存文献对选举行为在选民投票率和动力学选民的选择,与证据不足预测发展中无效投票国家。模式和预测的无效投票2019年总统大选在尼日利亚,记录最高的无效的选票选举的历史的国家。使用全球无效投票决定虽然预测和地方莫兰的索引与普通的援助被识别最小二乘回归和地理加权回归技术。研究表明人口密度,国内生产总值(gdp)人均生产总值,以及获得广播媒体作为无效投票的重要预测因子在尼日利亚。在这些因素的影响这个国家。人口密度、人均GDP和访问权对无效的广播媒体有更多的影响投票在尼日利亚北部比南部地区。社会经济条件的选民降低无效投票在尼日利亚。

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